Can we expect a U-shape recovery?
SPXJust a hunch, but is it possible that the markets have baked in a recession and we see a U-shape recovery. Of course, with 2nd quarter earnings to come out, the market will continue to react bearish possibly taking us around 1950. We should expect that the next 2 quarters will show negative growth in GDP indicating the recession everyone is talking about. Hopefully, we do not see any massive layoffs during this period and the stimulus package helps the workers. This is not a financial crisis, but a health crisis that disrupted financial markets. A bull market that lasted over 10 years should help cushion some of the blow. If the market knows this and with further stimulus, I can see a slow recovery that will last through the summer and into elections. A bit of an optimistic view at the moment, but someone has to be.
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