Interest Rate Signals
I was looking at March (being the close of the first quarter) for some volatility and perhaps market catastrophe, but interest rates are signaling otherwise. Demand on the short end of the curve was increasing into February 4th and 5th, but seems to have decreased some as the interest rates on the 1, 3, 6, 12 month treasuries have increased slightly.
Interest rates on the long duration treasuries continue to increase signaling market stability. Watch out for these rates to decrease into and through the summer as the Treasury Department draws down the Treasury general account from it's almost $1.8 trillion. To affect the draw down they'll reduce treasury issuance which will restrict supply and increase the competitiveness of bids for treasuries (ie lower interest rates).
Look at how the demand for treasuries increased into the March 2020 crash. The short duration treasuries actually went negative for a time! Also see how the demand was picking up months before the crash occurred. The banks knew what was coming.
Interest rates on the long duration treasuries continue to increase signaling market stability. Watch out for these rates to decrease into and through the summer as the Treasury Department draws down the Treasury general account from it's almost $1.8 trillion. To affect the draw down they'll reduce treasury issuance which will restrict supply and increase the competitiveness of bids for treasuries (ie lower interest rates).
Look at how the demand for treasuries increased into the March 2020 crash. The short duration treasuries actually went negative for a time! Also see how the demand was picking up months before the crash occurred. The banks knew what was coming.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.