Flynns Log Feb 10th 2023
Updated
The bulls and bears in the stock market are like two siblings always fighting over who's right.
The bulls are the optimists, always saying "the market is going up! Buy, buy, buy!" while the bears are the pessimists, growling "the market is going down! Sell, sell, sell!" It's like a never-ending game of "he said, she said".
But in all seriousness, these two forces play a crucial role in determining the direction of the market and their constant back-and-forth creates an environment of volatility and unpredictability. It's like watching a comedic ping-pong match, with prices bouncing up and down like a ball.
One minute the bulls are charging ahead and the next minute the bears are bringing them down.
It's all in good fun, but always remember to do your research and make informed investment decisions.
2 weeks ago, I was expecting the market to front run a test on the 20D and that didn’t happen.
I took to twitter and offered a bullish analysis for this week with a warning to use TLT as a directional bias.
I didn’t take my own advice and positioned only bullish yesterday knowing there would be a strong push to front fun the 20D prior to CPI/OPEX
I took a loosing strangle on the 8th (yellow box) which set me up for loosing calls only on the 9th.
Premarket should have been a clue, but it was a fake front running of a Vanna Rally.
And the drive through the open gap was the signal the weeks low would be next.
Sitting at about 4081.50 Open on SPX where I expect to base here at the Keep Calm and 4k On Line
The market is still at a point of technically weaker flows.
This is just Market Crash Game Theory.
Anyone in volatility should have at least 1 or 2 crash scenarios.
I wouldn’t ever recommend anyone trading crash theories.
Take it from experience, it’s a fools errand to try and predict a market crash and prosper from it.
I’m looking for support at 4050-4100 SPX range while the market digests the move lower and prepares for CPI.
My only position is OTM puts for March that I plan to hold through Feb expiry and roll into June if they don’t print.
Based on the price action for the last few days I’m expecting a realignment to the lower end of 4k for the rest of the year.
The messaging from FOMC is not lining up with a bullish trend into summer.
A hot CPI number will force the markets to reposition lower for no rate cuts in 2023.
But that doesn’t mean we plunge to the depths of financial hell either.
---- It Begins -------
Listen, I started a new project called The Grid.
It’s fintech. It will be focused on Options Education, Gamma, Vanna, Dealer Positioning, IV and Options history along with extra stuff like Hedged Equity Position tracking and members only Trading View indicators.
I don’t have the options data capability in trading view to push these indicators any further.
I’ll be launching an early registration site this weekend.
It will be free for founding members.
The bulls are the optimists, always saying "the market is going up! Buy, buy, buy!" while the bears are the pessimists, growling "the market is going down! Sell, sell, sell!" It's like a never-ending game of "he said, she said".
But in all seriousness, these two forces play a crucial role in determining the direction of the market and their constant back-and-forth creates an environment of volatility and unpredictability. It's like watching a comedic ping-pong match, with prices bouncing up and down like a ball.
One minute the bulls are charging ahead and the next minute the bears are bringing them down.
It's all in good fun, but always remember to do your research and make informed investment decisions.
2 weeks ago, I was expecting the market to front run a test on the 20D and that didn’t happen.
I took to twitter and offered a bullish analysis for this week with a warning to use TLT as a directional bias.
I didn’t take my own advice and positioned only bullish yesterday knowing there would be a strong push to front fun the 20D prior to CPI/OPEX
I took a loosing strangle on the 8th (yellow box) which set me up for loosing calls only on the 9th.
Premarket should have been a clue, but it was a fake front running of a Vanna Rally.
And the drive through the open gap was the signal the weeks low would be next.
Sitting at about 4081.50 Open on SPX where I expect to base here at the Keep Calm and 4k On Line
The market is still at a point of technically weaker flows.
This is just Market Crash Game Theory.
Anyone in volatility should have at least 1 or 2 crash scenarios.
I wouldn’t ever recommend anyone trading crash theories.
Take it from experience, it’s a fools errand to try and predict a market crash and prosper from it.
I’m looking for support at 4050-4100 SPX range while the market digests the move lower and prepares for CPI.
My only position is OTM puts for March that I plan to hold through Feb expiry and roll into June if they don’t print.
Based on the price action for the last few days I’m expecting a realignment to the lower end of 4k for the rest of the year.
The messaging from FOMC is not lining up with a bullish trend into summer.
A hot CPI number will force the markets to reposition lower for no rate cuts in 2023.
But that doesn’t mean we plunge to the depths of financial hell either.
---- It Begins -------
Listen, I started a new project called The Grid.
It’s fintech. It will be focused on Options Education, Gamma, Vanna, Dealer Positioning, IV and Options history along with extra stuff like Hedged Equity Position tracking and members only Trading View indicators.
I don’t have the options data capability in trading view to push these indicators any further.
I’ll be launching an early registration site this weekend.
It will be free for founding members.
Note
Dealer Gamma for the S&P 500 still remains positive but slowly decreasing in notional value from 3.5B per 1 point move, down to 1.5B per 1 point move.The Ichan 4050P this week was front running at its finest.
Now what happens is Puts get sold at this level. Ichan cleans up and everyone gets sideways Chop until the 14th.
Note
TSLA Bulls not putting up too much of a defence at 200.
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