SPX Model Trading Plans for TUE. 12/06
Fed Pivot Hope Turning Into a Bull Trap Nightmare? Day 3
In our trading plans published post-NFP on Fri., 12/02, we wrote: "After 20 days of meandering around 3950/4000 level, the index rocketed out of the range to a session high of 4093.50 on the FOMC day, 11/30/22. This morning's Non Farm Payrolls data could be suggesting that it could potentially be an "irrational exuberance", and the futures' reaction so far post-NFP points to this proving to be the case. Of course, how the index trades in the regular session and how it closes today will hold further clues to this".
Yesterday morning's hotter than expected ISM numbers, the post-PMI reaction, and this morning's market action so far are all lending more plausibility to our hypothesis that the recent spike up could be turning into a bull trap. The price action today and tomorrow could give us a confirmation. Bulls need to be cautious, and bears need to be nimble.
Positional Trading Models: Yesterday's published positional models closed 6.51 points in gains and went into the close with an open short at 4014.57 and a 38-point trailing stop. For today's session, models indicate tightening the trailing stop to 33-points. If stopped out, the models will stay flat for the rest of the session.
Intraday/Aggressive Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today.
Trading Plans for MON. 12/05:
Aggressive Intraday Models: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4052, 4028, or 4003 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4048, 4024, or 4000 with a 10-point trailing stop.
Models indicate long exits on a break below 4064, and short exits on a break above 3992. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 11:01 am ET or later.
By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention).
To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals.
***** No Idle Analysis-paralysis here! Only actionable trading plans - every morning! And, transparent, verifiable results of each and every trading plan, every night!
LET THE RESULTS SPEAK FOR OUR MODELS! See for yourself how our Morning Trading Plans have been doing for the last one month or one year or since started! *****
NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS:
(i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s).
(ii) The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors.
(iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk.
(iv) Positional Models assume that we are trading an instrument that trades the futures hours, with the trailing and other stops effective overnight.
#spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #fomc, #fed, #newhigh, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #powell, #interestrates, #rates, #earnings, #midterms, #elections, #cpi, #fedpivot, #shortsqueeze, #bulltrap, #nfp, #nonfarmpayrolls, #jobs, #pmi, #ism
In our trading plans published post-NFP on Fri., 12/02, we wrote: "After 20 days of meandering around 3950/4000 level, the index rocketed out of the range to a session high of 4093.50 on the FOMC day, 11/30/22. This morning's Non Farm Payrolls data could be suggesting that it could potentially be an "irrational exuberance", and the futures' reaction so far post-NFP points to this proving to be the case. Of course, how the index trades in the regular session and how it closes today will hold further clues to this".
Yesterday morning's hotter than expected ISM numbers, the post-PMI reaction, and this morning's market action so far are all lending more plausibility to our hypothesis that the recent spike up could be turning into a bull trap. The price action today and tomorrow could give us a confirmation. Bulls need to be cautious, and bears need to be nimble.
Positional Trading Models: Yesterday's published positional models closed 6.51 points in gains and went into the close with an open short at 4014.57 and a 38-point trailing stop. For today's session, models indicate tightening the trailing stop to 33-points. If stopped out, the models will stay flat for the rest of the session.
Intraday/Aggressive Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today.
Trading Plans for MON. 12/05:
Aggressive Intraday Models: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4052, 4028, or 4003 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4048, 4024, or 4000 with a 10-point trailing stop.
Models indicate long exits on a break below 4064, and short exits on a break above 3992. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 11:01 am ET or later.
By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention).
To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals.
***** No Idle Analysis-paralysis here! Only actionable trading plans - every morning! And, transparent, verifiable results of each and every trading plan, every night!
LET THE RESULTS SPEAK FOR OUR MODELS! See for yourself how our Morning Trading Plans have been doing for the last one month or one year or since started! *****
NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS:
(i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s).
(ii) The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors.
(iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk.
(iv) Positional Models assume that we are trading an instrument that trades the futures hours, with the trailing and other stops effective overnight.
#spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #fomc, #fed, #newhigh, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #powell, #interestrates, #rates, #earnings, #midterms, #elections, #cpi, #fedpivot, #shortsqueeze, #bulltrap, #nfp, #nonfarmpayrolls, #jobs, #pmi, #ism
WWW.TRADERSAI.COM
From The CFA Institute:
tradersai.com/14625-2/
blogs.cfainstitute.org/investor/2022/12/15/what-can-ai-do-for-investment-portfolios-a-case-study/
Join our substack: tradersai.substack.com/
From The CFA Institute:
tradersai.com/14625-2/
blogs.cfainstitute.org/investor/2022/12/15/what-can-ai-do-for-investment-portfolios-a-case-study/
Join our substack: tradersai.substack.com/
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.