Unfolding Bear Pattern: Measured Move Incoming? Crashing
Updated
Pattern reminiscent of the Christmas Crash 2018. Although seasonality usually favors price in April this was the Cruelest month ever.
Dec was an unseasonal bear four years ago, a crash can happen at any time. Worst selloff since COVID today, more coming IMO.
This big selloff day is unlikely to be followed by another, but anything is possible. The whole thing could just unwind next week.
But if the pattern repeats, a second, weaker and shorter rally to lower high may appear next week. Second failed rally MAY NOT appear.
Price can decline at any time but shorting from here is inadvisable considering oversold condition reaction rally likely. DYODD; GLTA!
Dec was an unseasonal bear four years ago, a crash can happen at any time. Worst selloff since COVID today, more coming IMO.
This big selloff day is unlikely to be followed by another, but anything is possible. The whole thing could just unwind next week.
But if the pattern repeats, a second, weaker and shorter rally to lower high may appear next week. Second failed rally MAY NOT appear.
Price can decline at any time but shorting from here is inadvisable considering oversold condition reaction rally likely. DYODD; GLTA!
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Red skies at night, sailor's delight... again. Sailing red seas. No rally in sight, put man's delight.Looks like a risk-off day starting out. let's see how far it falls. Could be a circuit-breaker, eh?!
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LOL someone just traded qqq premarket on a market fill order, price jumped from 311 to 313 for few seconds. This happened twice now in past 2 minutes. Back to 311.Probly gonna see 300 or less today imo.
NEVER place 'buy or sell at market' orders in AH trade!
Trade active
Sold into the early selloff and bet a big lot on the bounce, it paid. Back in cash, after gapfill can sell again.Note
Price fluctuates wildly fgs, pure gamble now!Trade active
Banked qqq, spy calls on secondary retrace; can sell again now or start bulling, anyone's guess; back in cash.Note
Flipped ten qq puts lol, see if it sells again. Not chasing!Note
Flipped qqq 313p it made bear flag and broke, see if it lifts back to daily tl? not chasing.Note
Trying spy calls 411 0dteNote
Moved itm closed green for the day not pushing my luck!Note
It could really start to sell again imo as we get closer to eod might risk-off. Power hour <> Sour Hour?!Note
NB: Support appears to hold at the double bottom on SPY ~405. If it holds to EOD could see it bull next week?!Very chancy here still and so unpredictable. Trade small and with care!
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Yeah selling again fgs, after the gapfill getting a secondary selloff. NQ went -330 first wave, might get there again by EOD, or it could bounce again. Pure crapshoot atm.Note
Do not get FOMO you are not missing anything, believe me! Keep your cash, stay safe!Note
Euro bourse check: Bearish all day with strong sell near eod and late lift. See if the pattern repeats here today.Trade active
Flipped ten spy calls on the noon lift. This is an expected move back towards the intraday tl, after the bear flag broke. Please do not chase it, these retracements typically fail and anther selling wave will most likely emerge.Do not recommend buying any long etf, stonks or calls here, it is a strong downtrend. Sometime in next 3-6 weeks I expect to see 3500 SPX. Might get that second lower high first, maybe next week. Trade it day by day, hold nothing overnight. Look waht happened to TQQQ Thursday after FOMC Weds PM runup. Wiped out every penny!
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LOL FGS, while I typed the above note the calls I sold went in half when I tabbed out! See what I mean!Note
Both QQQ, SPY traded over $10 range today, now exactly in the middle at 310/410 respectively. Any position here is pure gamble imo, back in cash. Can move up again or sell down to LOTD now. GL!
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NB: Getting intraday 'double peak' which is often pattern before a big dump. Not guessing either way.Note
There's the dump lol. Didn't ride it. Bully time EOD? Hmmm...Note
Tryed eod calls 3x, made a few nickels. Does not 'feel' like it will bull EOD, each tiny rally crushed. Not gonna gamble it.Note
Couldn't resist, flipped 3 spy 408c eod. Spreads on ITM calls are 55c, it's wide. MMs want to close with you low and open high on another retail.Note
People ask me why don't you think we gonna get bounce up to new ATH? A: It's in a bear market. Look at RTY. America's real stonk market is small caps, RUT. It's off 25% already. Those are the workhorses of industry. NQ Megacaps may be off 'only 19.5%' but more will come IMO. Any bounce we get will be to a lower high. The bears are not done, most traders today have never seen a real one. A real bear lasts ~9-16 months. After the panic selling it just grinds lower month after month. There is no bouncing, at least not very far. For ten years every dip was bought up and retail is trained to buy it. This bear will wipe out a lot of speculators, many have already been taken down for dip-buying. LOTY 2022 low price might come in October IMO, perhaps another 1k pips under current price levels. Not a permabear, just being real, been there, done lived through three bears since 1987. Covid was not a proper bear market, just a rough correction from Hell, lol.
Dip-buyers still clinging to the forlorn hope that TQQQ will get over $100 and DCA more are pissing in the wind IMO.
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Big gap, played it a bit, does not look like it will gapfill before EOD, might fill Tues. Helluva rip if it fills... 'feels' like an opportunity to sell puts. Not tryin' until we see what Tues brings. When it's crashing like this it can just keep on crashing, eh?!Note
Flipped 100 0dte calls eod on this lift. Dicey play, paid. In cash again.Note
a rally is likely to lower high. bottom probly another 500 pips below 4k price imo. resting on long term tl from 2010Note
Disappointing action today after the gapfill expected more of a bullup, after a long struggle it made it back to opening price and then rolled over again. Had really hoped for more, will we get it? Stay tuned.Note
Overnight madness! The pump vaporized premarket. CPI numbers. Maybe there won't be a rally after all. No position. Cash is a good position imo.Note
Overnite futurz on SPX traded to 4040. They filled that gap quickly on a pump and it falls back now. Might pump higher but I wouldn't bet on it. Price manipulation to close overnight positions creates this mad whipsawing.Note
In the short-term buy box. I took a call EOD.
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