Long

Unfilled gap is at 0.50 Fibo

Updated

Chart says it all. Bear trap. If this is impulsive move lower all the past week's down is just the first leg lower.
A retracement to the 0.50 is most common. Shorts beware.

Note

Hammered again lol. Bad news is bad again. Can pump like mad on fake good news, 'gov funding imminent!'

Trade active

Might have a pivot reversal on the hammer doji 9/27. Confirm by Friday.

October has an undeserved rep for crashes. In fact it's often the best time of year to buy stonks. Could be green.

Note

Here weee goooo

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Behaves like typical bottom forming pattern. Got a fierce rally from lows Weds 9/27 which fizzled by noon Friday. Acts like a 1st EW. If it is, expect a PB to the .62 Fibo around 425 on SPY, catalyst can be Congressional failure to fund our Govt.
Holding nothing over this weekend, any position is a pure bet on what our elected fools produce Saturday night. A continuance package for interim funding is almost sure to pass. Bigger budget deal can drag for weeks.
Mondays have been bullish, but it's prudent to wait and see what we get rather than try to guess at what it might bring.

Any further disappointments could precipitate an even lower low in early October. Very chancy time of year to bet on stonks.

Note

Fourth EW trading sucks, lol. Monster rallies lead to nothing, chop to fade. Really nail-biters. Puts vaporized on Thursday and calls snuffed Friday. Sometimes better not to trade... watch, wait for a setup.

Passage of a budget over the weekend could spark another monster rally, a tower of power which would complete the countertrend move.

All news-related moves are usually brief, hours or a few days at most.

Note

Wow they really dumped it, Triple Witching and looming shutdown. Would not chase this, could easily pivot and reverse back up when events are passed.

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Here's what's driving it, early today a procedural vote passed and seemed like McCarthy would get his bill done, but 19 Tea Party nutjobs came back after lunch and changed their votes, thus the bill failed and we got a little panic run:

"House Republicans on Friday failed to pass a short-term funding bill to keep the government open until Oct. 31.

Earlier in the day, a procedural vote to start debate on the bill advanced 218-210, prompting Republican applause in the chamber.

However, more than a dozen Republican hard-liners voted against final passage -- a major defeat for House Speaker Kevin McCarthy as Saturday night's shutdown deadline looms.

The final vote was 198 for, 232 against." -ABC News

Really impossible to guess at this kind of trickery so ofc you got whipsaw like Hell. Couple times I look at cawls thinking, 'chart looks like it should bull here' but then this. Took some poots but closed early cuz it seemed like the stopgap resolution would pass, a setup for late day rally. Better to stay out and keep your money, eh?!

Note

Poots trading for 30c in am now at $3. Just go figure. Coulda made a mint but what a huge risk to load up penny puts... sometimes they really print.

Trade closed: stop reached

4350 in AH never got there in open drive I reckon it's done. Get ready for a leg down.

Note

Gonna give back evry damn penny from that nutty rally now. Nuts!

DaddySawbucks

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