Another recipe for November Rally
Updated
11/13 - Today was a slow day with lower trading volume; major big tech stocks hitting only half of their 10-day average trading volume.
Mixed signals were anticipated as most of the traders were seemingly awaiting for the CPI report tomorrow 11/14.
S&P remained slightly positive by 0.07%, as well as Nasdaq, which closed the first trading day of the week with 0.11% increase.
Technology Services&Electronics
Lower by average of -0.365%
APPL: -0.86%
NVDA: 0.59%
GOOGL: -0.38%
MSFT: -0.81%
Retail Trade
Lower by average of -0.2%
AMZN: -0.68%
WMT: 0.9%
HD: -1.21%
COST: 0.19%
11/15 Preview:
The Highlight of this week.
The upcoming inflation report with Wednesday's Retail Sales will be able to give us a better insight of where the Fed is heading towards with is potential rate hikes, which will then put an end to the market divagation by providing a clear guidance (Bull or Bear).
However, with the current inverse relationship between Fed policy and the Gov't spending, it is quite likely for the Fed to stay neutral for the rest of the year as Gov't is now planning to take a major control over its domestic market. Until the 3rd quarter of 2023, the Gov't increased fiscal spending (ESG campaigns, etc..) allowed large cap companies' to take advantage and revive their market performance from the potential downtrend. In contrast, as we all might know, the Fed has been cutting its balance budget significantly compared YOY basis.
Core inflation Rate MoM Estimate: 0.3% (0.3% previous)
Core Inflation Rate YoY Estimate: 4.0% (4.1% previous)
Retail Sales MoMn Estimate: 0.0% (0.7% previous)
#SPX500
We are on the verge of the huge drive, up or down.
Significant resiliences were spotted during today's trading.
High: 4421.94
Low: 4392.5
My forecast is based on an assumption that tomorrow's inflation rate consensus ends up being higher than expected value. With the Fed insisting to get the PCE down to 2% range, the fear of potential rate hike will hit the market quite severely, potential downside rally of about -1.7%(-7491 bp). If it fails to secure 4341 price range as the retail sales reveals to be a lower than the projected forecasts, regardless of Fed's reaction to, the market will face a significant downturn as Key retail firm's Santa rally becomes more likely not to happen at all.
Mixed signals were anticipated as most of the traders were seemingly awaiting for the CPI report tomorrow 11/14.
S&P remained slightly positive by 0.07%, as well as Nasdaq, which closed the first trading day of the week with 0.11% increase.
Technology Services&Electronics
Lower by average of -0.365%
APPL: -0.86%
NVDA: 0.59%
GOOGL: -0.38%
MSFT: -0.81%
Retail Trade
Lower by average of -0.2%
AMZN: -0.68%
WMT: 0.9%
HD: -1.21%
COST: 0.19%
11/15 Preview:
The Highlight of this week.
The upcoming inflation report with Wednesday's Retail Sales will be able to give us a better insight of where the Fed is heading towards with is potential rate hikes, which will then put an end to the market divagation by providing a clear guidance (Bull or Bear).
However, with the current inverse relationship between Fed policy and the Gov't spending, it is quite likely for the Fed to stay neutral for the rest of the year as Gov't is now planning to take a major control over its domestic market. Until the 3rd quarter of 2023, the Gov't increased fiscal spending (ESG campaigns, etc..) allowed large cap companies' to take advantage and revive their market performance from the potential downtrend. In contrast, as we all might know, the Fed has been cutting its balance budget significantly compared YOY basis.
Core inflation Rate MoM Estimate: 0.3% (0.3% previous)
Core Inflation Rate YoY Estimate: 4.0% (4.1% previous)
Retail Sales MoMn Estimate: 0.0% (0.7% previous)
#SPX500
We are on the verge of the huge drive, up or down.
Significant resiliences were spotted during today's trading.
High: 4421.94
Low: 4392.5
My forecast is based on an assumption that tomorrow's inflation rate consensus ends up being higher than expected value. With the Fed insisting to get the PCE down to 2% range, the fear of potential rate hike will hit the market quite severely, potential downside rally of about -1.7%(-7491 bp). If it fails to secure 4341 price range as the retail sales reveals to be a lower than the projected forecasts, regardless of Fed's reaction to, the market will face a significant downturn as Key retail firm's Santa rally becomes more likely not to happen at all.
Trade closed: target reached
Went above and beyond the projected 4518 level as the CPI data results in lower than the market expectation.Expected: 4.1
Actual: 4.0
It shot straight up to 4472, once tried to go beyond 4500 level, a short retrieve after.
4485-4490 expect to rebounce and give another shot for 4500.
Note
Daily total trading volume 22.425KMore than a 3rd of the volume went in within the very beginning two hours of the day.
The previous peak is $4596.74(July 31st) with 2.442M total volume SPXV. Currently, the latest data indicates we are at a volume of 2.824M.
Along with today's strong CPI data, strong chart, yet remaining support from volume, we should see another week-month-long bull market.
Frankly, the depressing report of Japan's GDP will also add some comparative Dollar advantage.
Note
[B] KEY TAKEAWAYS [/B]- Markets return to a full schedule following a shortened Thanksgiving holiday week.
- The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index for October will be released on Tuesday, giving investors the latest look at inflation ahead of the Fed’s mid-December meeting.
- Salesforce releases earnings on Thursday, while Intuit, Workday, Crowdstrike, Dollar Tree and Five Below are also set to report this week.
- Tuesday, the consumer confidence index for November will be released, while on Wednesday, market watchers will see the first revisions to the third-quarter U.S. gross domestic product.
Tuesday, Nov. 28
Intuit (INTU), Workday (WDAY), CrowdStrike (CRWD), and Splunk (SPLK) report earnings.
S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index (September)
Consumer confidence (November)
Wednesday, Nov. 29
Salesforce (CRM), Synopsys (SNPS), Snowflake (SNOW), Dollar Tree (DLTR), Hormel Foods Corporation (HRL), Okta (OKTA), Pure Storage (PSTG) and Five Below (FIVE) release earnings.
Q3 U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) (first revision)
Advanced U.S. trade balance in goods (October)
Advanced wholesale inventories (October)
Advance retail inventories (October)
Federal Reserve Beige Book
Thursday, Nov. 30
Dell Technologies (DELL), Marvell Technology (MRVL), Kroger Company (KR), Ulta Beauty (ULTA), Royal Bank Of Canada (RY), TD Bank (TD), and CIBC (CM) release earnings.
Initial jobless claims (week ending Nov. 25)
Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index (October)
Pending home sales (October)
Friday, Dec. 1
Genesco (GCO) releases earnings.
ISM manufacturing (November)
Construction spending (October)
Auto sales (November)
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