SPX Weekly review and forecast: August 1, 2022
Last week, the markets saw a strong move to the upside with the SPX closing just shy of 4150 (4133). The move was largely fueled by FED chair Jerome Powell's comments, as well as strong earnings out of mega market cap stocks such as AAPL and AMZN. AMZN rallied +17.5% on the week and is up a whopping +32% from its low on June 13th. A similar story for AAPL, which is up +8.3% WoW and +25% since June 13. Joining the party, energy stocks like XOM reported very strong profits which vaulted the XLE higher. So far, the primary thesis of a bullish continuation being powered by energy (XLE) and technology (XLK) has come to fruition. The question, of course, is how long it will last - but first, a snapshot of last week's action:
SPX: +5.2%
Nasdaq: +6.8%
Russell: +4.5%
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Technology (XLK): +7.5%
Energy (XLE): +9%
Financials (XLF): +3.9%
Looking ahead to next week, the SPX is poised to retest the price zone between 4100 - 4200 which proved to be considerable resistance back on early June. The probabilities suggest some range bound action here, before the next major move. Needless to say, there's a chance that we could see a forceful continuation, and an even smaller chance of an outright rejection. Regardless, given the improving conditions, 4300 and 4400 are very much in play as potential upside targets heading into Q4.
The expected moves for this week are +/- 81.30 (SPX), 8.81 (QQQ), 4.8 (IWM). The Nasdaq is clearly in the pole position for this rally, and is threatening to push back to 14,000, but with another busy week of earnings, as well as unemployment numbers, and more inflation data, there is still plenty of fuel to spark volatility (which has fallen off a cliff).
Best of luck this week. If you found this helpful, please let me know!
SPX: +5.2%
Nasdaq: +6.8%
Russell: +4.5%
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Technology (XLK): +7.5%
Energy (XLE): +9%
Financials (XLF): +3.9%
Looking ahead to next week, the SPX is poised to retest the price zone between 4100 - 4200 which proved to be considerable resistance back on early June. The probabilities suggest some range bound action here, before the next major move. Needless to say, there's a chance that we could see a forceful continuation, and an even smaller chance of an outright rejection. Regardless, given the improving conditions, 4300 and 4400 are very much in play as potential upside targets heading into Q4.
The expected moves for this week are +/- 81.30 (SPX), 8.81 (QQQ), 4.8 (IWM). The Nasdaq is clearly in the pole position for this rally, and is threatening to push back to 14,000, but with another busy week of earnings, as well as unemployment numbers, and more inflation data, there is still plenty of fuel to spark volatility (which has fallen off a cliff).
Best of luck this week. If you found this helpful, please let me know!
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