will inflation and recession coexist for a long term #SPX500
Updated
Cathy Wood said early this week that US economy was in recession and she confirmed that conclusion after last week's nonfarm payroll data released.
so now how the Fed and Market are going to reflect their views?
Fed: 1. speed up the interest rate hiking before the recession get into the downward spiral (before end of 2022).
2, slowing down the hiking or on hold for a while for more convincing evidences.
Market: 1, Both interest rate hiking or confirmation of recession will lead the SPX500 to south until the recession reach its bottom (according to Cathy Wood when new disruptive renovations showed its market values )
2, if recession speeding up faster than everyone's expectation ( unemployment data + CPI + PCE ) then market may expect Fed to lower interest rate and saving the economy then SPX500 will go north.
so far SPX500 still in a bear rally trend. Let's see tonight's CPI data.
so now how the Fed and Market are going to reflect their views?
Fed: 1. speed up the interest rate hiking before the recession get into the downward spiral (before end of 2022).
2, slowing down the hiking or on hold for a while for more convincing evidences.
Market: 1, Both interest rate hiking or confirmation of recession will lead the SPX500 to south until the recession reach its bottom (according to Cathy Wood when new disruptive renovations showed its market values )
2, if recession speeding up faster than everyone's expectation ( unemployment data + CPI + PCE ) then market may expect Fed to lower interest rate and saving the economy then SPX500 will go north.
so far SPX500 still in a bear rally trend. Let's see tonight's CPI data.
Trade active
KEEPING SHORT SPX500 @4130Trade active
last line of defence @4200CPI data was convincing and Monthly inflation increased at 0.3% so to reach 2% it needs at least 1 year at the rate of monthly inflation from 0 to 0.3%.
so @4200 will be the last resistant, if it breaks then stop or hedge your position and waiting for September FED announcement.
Trade closed: stop reached
the bear market rally is officially over.Do not short anymore, finding a good buy in position from now on
Trade closed: stop reached
new idea for LONG SPX500 now (3945)or after september FOMC
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