S&P500 - Decline Down to 3600
Updated
Are we about to see a Crash in the Stock Market?
(This is an analysis for ALL of the Stock Indexes/Indices)
O R D E R F L O W:
A Market Maker Sell Model (MMSM) is in play. It's likely to be completed.
Looking at the techicals in price action, we can see that the orderflow is definitely Bearish.
Price keeps running out Buystops to go lower, and it's breaking market structure lower. So price runs buystops and keeps breaking market structure to the downside.
Also, everytime a FVG or Orderblock has been created, it has been mitigated (filled), respected, and traded away from it...
This tells us two things:
- That we have no reason to go higher, because all FVG's/OB's have been mitigated. All Buystops have been taken too. So there's no buyside inefficiencies for the market to reach for.
- That the interest for the algorithm is on the downside. We're trading down through Discount PD Arrays while respecting the Premium PD Arrays. We can expect this to continue before proven otherwise...
If price reaches up into the FVG (and potentially all the way up into the Orderblock) above current price, I expect price to respect these PD Arrays to go Lower.
If price fails to reach up to the FVG and OB and rather goes lower, that indicates extreme Bearish Momentum as it lacks its bullish ability to go up.
Overall target is 3600, which is a sweep of the Sellside Liquidity.
M A C R O S:
The USD Index (DXY), is inversely correlated to the Indices. I am personally Long Term Bullish on DXY (check my DXY analysis post for details). A Stronger DXY will put pressure on S&P to decline Lower.
I'm also favoring Bearishness on the Bond Market & Bearish Commdoities- which will lead to Bearish S&P (due to their positive correlation relationship).
The world is also unfortunately about to enter a Recession and Inflation, which will cause negative impacts on the worldwide economy, and the Stock Market will NOT react positively to this.
S E N T I M E N T A L I S M
This analysis is also twisted upside down from what the "average Joe" investor thinks...
Looking at the newspapers & Financial/Economic Blogs, the majority of the crowd expects this to be the "Dip", aka they expect Bullish prices.
The market makers usually use this sentiment to then do the complete opposite.
An example of this was Bitcoin. When Bitcoin was getting popular and everyone knew about it due to its drastic increase in value, lots of clueless people bought it, and the market makers then dumped it lower. to upset their positions.
This is my speculation and expectation on the Stock Market's upcoming direction. Do your own research too.
Note
I forgot to mention:Seasonal Tendency for Indices is also Bearish the second half of September!
Note
Commercials are also heavily Net Short according to COT.Trade closed: target reached
BOOM.
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