S&P500 at 4,100 as a 'base case' this year - RBC
RBC discussed its S&P500 expectations for 2021 in a recent note to clients.
RBC noted:
Our 2021 S&P 500 target of 4.100 is our base case. It is roughly the median of 15 upside scenarios that we examined. If our call proves too conservative, our analysis suggests that the S&P 500 could trade as high as 4,600 for a +20% full year gain - the most bullish scenarios we examined came close to this level.
Among the eight downside scenarios we examined, which articulate our bear case for full year or interim downside if momentum breaks lower, several point to a pullback to the 3600 / 3700 area (mid single digit drop in percentage terms depending on the starting point used) or to -3,200 (mid to high teens dip in percentage terms depending on starting point).
RBC noted:
Our 2021 S&P 500 target of 4.100 is our base case. It is roughly the median of 15 upside scenarios that we examined. If our call proves too conservative, our analysis suggests that the S&P 500 could trade as high as 4,600 for a +20% full year gain - the most bullish scenarios we examined came close to this level.
Among the eight downside scenarios we examined, which articulate our bear case for full year or interim downside if momentum breaks lower, several point to a pullback to the 3600 / 3700 area (mid single digit drop in percentage terms depending on the starting point used) or to -3,200 (mid to high teens dip in percentage terms depending on starting point).
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