SPX: A long-term consolidation may be forming.
Updated
Possible scenario for the development of events for the S&P 500. The current decline could be in the area of 4000 or 3805. By the 2024 elections, it is desirable that the index be in the ATH area or higher. Selecting an index above 3490 will form a long-term consolidation with the first target for growth at 5480. Therefore, already in the area of 3885, for a long with a stop at 3490, the Profit factor will be 4. If they break through 3490, then a long-term downward trend, but a bullish scenario is more likely, since The United States is now doing much better than most countries on the planet.
Comment
Long-term consolidation has not been formed, but this does not fundamentally affect further actions. After the situation around Israel was resolved, the annual upward trend continued. Further technical targets are in the area of 4860, 5100. There will be a large expiration of call options in December. There are currently $69 billion worth of stakes in the money. The elimination of hedging of such a volume of long positions will cause a local pullback of the index downwards. On average, the index decreases by 4% at such moments. So, around December 15, you can consider taking profits on long positions and the opportunity to make short-term money on a slight downward pullback of the index.
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