Newly Minted Bear Channel
Updated
I spend most of my time watching for secular movements in markets.
Bulls shifting bearish at tops
Bears shifting bullish at bottoms
There are a multitude of reasons markets move up and down and form trend channels.
The channels may not always be the same as there are so many factors that make up a channel.
QE for example gave us a steep upwards channel that lasted nearly 2 years before breaking in January.
Despite all my bullish posts recently, my overall outlook is still that we are in a bear market and the most recent run up higher was a result of short squeezes and rebalancing.
Even Dr. Burry had to cover his shorts this recent bull rally.
We’re in the 3rd week of the month, which means Vixperation.
It also means a window of weakness.
Take note of the lack of volume during this recent rally, particularly at the bottom.
Look back at the bottoms of other market sell offs and you will notice much more volume at the bottom “Buy the Dips”.
Which means, logically speaking, we have not hit the “bottom” of a bear market yet.
If my idea is correct and we are indeed in a newly minted bear channel down it could be twice as impactful as the last 2 with a price target of 294.17 by the end of the year.
From peak to trough, the last 2 channels down have doubled in magnitude.
Bulls shifting bearish at tops
Bears shifting bullish at bottoms
There are a multitude of reasons markets move up and down and form trend channels.
The channels may not always be the same as there are so many factors that make up a channel.
QE for example gave us a steep upwards channel that lasted nearly 2 years before breaking in January.
Despite all my bullish posts recently, my overall outlook is still that we are in a bear market and the most recent run up higher was a result of short squeezes and rebalancing.
Even Dr. Burry had to cover his shorts this recent bull rally.
We’re in the 3rd week of the month, which means Vixperation.
It also means a window of weakness.
Take note of the lack of volume during this recent rally, particularly at the bottom.
Look back at the bottoms of other market sell offs and you will notice much more volume at the bottom “Buy the Dips”.
Which means, logically speaking, we have not hit the “bottom” of a bear market yet.
If my idea is correct and we are indeed in a newly minted bear channel down it could be twice as impactful as the last 2 with a price target of 294.17 by the end of the year.
From peak to trough, the last 2 channels down have doubled in magnitude.
Note
Intraday technicals from yesterdays close through FOMC minutes were on point today. (sorry for the messy prez)On the 15min, todays FOMC pump n dump formed a head & shoulder reversal with a 162% PT aiming to close AUG12th gap.
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