SPY Back from the Dead! Gamma Reclaim or One-Day Trap? 638 is the Battleground
๐ GEX & Options Flow Insight (1st Image Analysis)
SPY surged off strong PUT support at ~630 and is now pressing into the CALL Resistance wall at 633โ634, with upward momentum and a surprising gamma flip. However, it's running right into a stacked supply zone just below the next big Call Wall at 638.
* Call Walls & Resistance:
* ๐ 633.78โ634.34 โ CALL Resistance + HVL zone
* ๐ 636.39 โ 2nd Call Wall (38.27%)
* ๐งฑ 638.88โ639.88 โ GEX10 territory = squeeze potential, if bulls hold
* Put Support Zones:
* ๐ก๏ธ 632.00โ631.00 โ Flip zone from PUT-dominated to long gamma
* ๐จ 629.73 โ Highest negative NET GEX = anchor support
* ๐ 626.19 โ Breakdown risk zone
* Volatility Insight:
* IVR 14.9, IVx Avg 16.2 โ Low volatility = cheap contracts
* PUTs Dominant at 72.3% = Dealer long gamma positioning
* GEX sentiment: ๐ข๐ข๐ข โ Reversal confirmed into bullish territory
โ Option Trading Suggestion:
Bias: Reversal long, but cautious at 638โ640 resistanceโจStrategy: Vertical debit call spread or butterfly
* Entry Idea: Buy 636C / Sell 640C for Aug 2 or Aug 5 expiry
* Aggressive alternative: Naked 638C if breakout continues with volume
* Invalidation: Strong rejection + close back under 634
* Target: 638.88 โ potential extension to 640โ641.5
Why this works: SPY is squeezing dealers short from earlier PUT dominance. The reclaim above 633 into the gamma-neutral zone triggered forced hedging. If momentum holds above 636, short calls must be covered โ squeeze scenario.
๐ง Technical Analysis (1H Chart) (2nd Image Analysis)
Market Structure & SMC:
* ๐ CHoCH โ BOS โ CHoCH โ BOS again = high volatility reversal sequence
* SPY just broke out of descending wedge and reclaimed supply
* Current price is inside a major supply zone (purple box 636โ639)
Trendline Dynamics:
* Broken wedge trend now back-tested
* Price at upper channel boundary โ watch for rejection or breakout confirmation
SMC Zones:
* ๐ฅ Supply Zone (Purple Box): 636โ639.88 โ historical resistance
* ๐ฉ Demand Zone: 631โ632.5 โ HVL flip zone + previous OB
* ๐จ Breakdown below 629.73 โ back into bearish territory
๐ Price Action & Key Levels
* Support:
* โ 634.34 โ 633.78 โ Flip zone from gamma trap
* โ 631.00 โ 629.73 โ OB + Put Wall cluster
* ๐ป 626.19 โ Final support before further downside opens
* Resistance:
* ๐ฉ 636.39 โ 638.88 โ Multiple Call Walls + supply
* ๐งฑ 641.65 โ Next upside zone = GEX extension if breakout
๐งญ Scalping / Intraday Trade Setup
๐ฉ Bullish Setup (Preferred Now):
* Entry: 634.00โ635.00 breakout hold
* Target 1: 638.00
* Target 2: 641.00
* Stop: Below 632
๐ฅ Bearish Fade Setup:
* Entry: Rejection at 638.88 + high-volume stall
* Target 1: 634.50
* Target 2: 631.50
* Stop: Breakout above 640
๐ Summary Thoughts
* SPY is in recovery mode, reversing from a gamma-led flush and now facing resistance at a stacked CALL wall zone.
* Dealer positioning flipped positive. If bulls hold above 636, 640+ is realistic.
* However, failure to break 638.88 will turn this into a short squeeze fade.
* Scalpers can ride the momentum if price consolidates above 634. Rejection at 638 is the line between breakout and fakeout.
๐จ Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and manage your risk accordingly.
๐ GEX & Options Flow Insight (1st Image Analysis)
SPY surged off strong PUT support at ~630 and is now pressing into the CALL Resistance wall at 633โ634, with upward momentum and a surprising gamma flip. However, it's running right into a stacked supply zone just below the next big Call Wall at 638.
* Call Walls & Resistance:
* ๐ 633.78โ634.34 โ CALL Resistance + HVL zone
* ๐ 636.39 โ 2nd Call Wall (38.27%)
* ๐งฑ 638.88โ639.88 โ GEX10 territory = squeeze potential, if bulls hold
* Put Support Zones:
* ๐ก๏ธ 632.00โ631.00 โ Flip zone from PUT-dominated to long gamma
* ๐จ 629.73 โ Highest negative NET GEX = anchor support
* ๐ 626.19 โ Breakdown risk zone
* Volatility Insight:
* IVR 14.9, IVx Avg 16.2 โ Low volatility = cheap contracts
* PUTs Dominant at 72.3% = Dealer long gamma positioning
* GEX sentiment: ๐ข๐ข๐ข โ Reversal confirmed into bullish territory
โ Option Trading Suggestion:
Bias: Reversal long, but cautious at 638โ640 resistanceโจStrategy: Vertical debit call spread or butterfly
* Entry Idea: Buy 636C / Sell 640C for Aug 2 or Aug 5 expiry
* Aggressive alternative: Naked 638C if breakout continues with volume
* Invalidation: Strong rejection + close back under 634
* Target: 638.88 โ potential extension to 640โ641.5
Why this works: SPY is squeezing dealers short from earlier PUT dominance. The reclaim above 633 into the gamma-neutral zone triggered forced hedging. If momentum holds above 636, short calls must be covered โ squeeze scenario.
๐ง Technical Analysis (1H Chart) (2nd Image Analysis)
Market Structure & SMC:
* ๐ CHoCH โ BOS โ CHoCH โ BOS again = high volatility reversal sequence
* SPY just broke out of descending wedge and reclaimed supply
* Current price is inside a major supply zone (purple box 636โ639)
Trendline Dynamics:
* Broken wedge trend now back-tested
* Price at upper channel boundary โ watch for rejection or breakout confirmation
SMC Zones:
* ๐ฅ Supply Zone (Purple Box): 636โ639.88 โ historical resistance
* ๐ฉ Demand Zone: 631โ632.5 โ HVL flip zone + previous OB
* ๐จ Breakdown below 629.73 โ back into bearish territory
๐ Price Action & Key Levels
* Support:
* โ 634.34 โ 633.78 โ Flip zone from gamma trap
* โ 631.00 โ 629.73 โ OB + Put Wall cluster
* ๐ป 626.19 โ Final support before further downside opens
* Resistance:
* ๐ฉ 636.39 โ 638.88 โ Multiple Call Walls + supply
* ๐งฑ 641.65 โ Next upside zone = GEX extension if breakout
๐งญ Scalping / Intraday Trade Setup
๐ฉ Bullish Setup (Preferred Now):
* Entry: 634.00โ635.00 breakout hold
* Target 1: 638.00
* Target 2: 641.00
* Stop: Below 632
๐ฅ Bearish Fade Setup:
* Entry: Rejection at 638.88 + high-volume stall
* Target 1: 634.50
* Target 2: 631.50
* Stop: Breakout above 640
๐ Summary Thoughts
* SPY is in recovery mode, reversing from a gamma-led flush and now facing resistance at a stacked CALL wall zone.
* Dealer positioning flipped positive. If bulls hold above 636, 640+ is realistic.
* However, failure to break 638.88 will turn this into a short squeeze fade.
* Scalpers can ride the momentum if price consolidates above 634. Rejection at 638 is the line between breakout and fakeout.
๐จ Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and manage your risk accordingly.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.