US Futures traded relatively flat on Monday morning, and are sitting near ATH's to start the week. The Dow is down -0.7% to 34,308, the S&P up 0.9% to 4,276, the Nasdaq up 0.32% to 14,384, and the Russell down -0.11% to 2,329.50 as of 9AM. It's insane to me to watch quantitative hedge funds underperforming retail traders, while asset valuations becomes more and more stretched due to mindblowing liquidity from central banks, corporate buy-backs, and persistent and obsessive jawboning of markets by policy makers. It's as though they're allergic to price discovery, or maybe it's just logic?
The Dollar (DXY) is holding steady just under a 92 handle, while the US10Y yield continues to drift lower. We're holding on to 1.50% at the moment but we've been stuck in a persistent downtrend since the end of March. Bitcoin tested a 35k handle in the overnight session but has since slipped back to 34,382 with about 30 minutes to the cash open. I feel for the crypto permabulls who will be left holding an empty bag when this ponzi comes crashing down, but anyone who looks at secular cycles will see that inflation, and as a result, rates, are about to skyrocket. When this market eventually reprices, it's going to be vicious.
Vix is sitting at 16.12 after testing long term trendline support, and looks poised for a major spike in the near term on a way overdue correction across the asset classes. With valuations going essentially parabolic, money managers are starting to worry about the implications of inflation on an already struggling global economy. The central banks are stealing wealth from the working class, and liberal governments all over the globe are cheering on the fiat debasement, while their loyal voters foot the bill, and beg for more. The feeling of cognitive dissonance has to be infecting policy makers minds by now, as they single handedly destroy capitalism. When price means nothing and supply and demand are controlled by policy makers, it's no longer a market, folks.
Let's see how the week shapes up as we approach the final trading days of Q2. Stay tuned for our live analysis starting at 9:30AM. Cheers, Michael.