Here's a loose estimation (using basic compound interest over time delta) of what the market would be worth with adjusted inflation if liquidity remained constant since 2007. Inflation adjusted value estimated through the yearly growth % of the market adjusted for inflation and averaged with general inflation trends from 2000-2025 at a ~85% inflation, year by year avg 85/25 = ~3.4%.
(hard to get exact numbers so include a +-10% error at a 90% confidence interval)
What does this tell us? We are above peak value of 520, in consideration of the stimulus being applied over time in buy backs and inflating the market over the last 15+ years, we have a high probability chance that we are at peak investment liquidity and upward movement can be delayed for the next 5-10 years in the form of a major correction to market valuation.
1 minute ago
Trade active
Inf Est since 2007 using adjusted 6.7% year by year inflation
Peak Yr 2007 2015 2020 2022 2025
M.Val 162 213 340 475 613
Inf Est 0 272 376 428 520
Why does the M. Val eventually exceed the Inflation Estimated Value?
Consider the buy backs from stimulus that entered the market after GFC.
1) In no way will they max out on buy backs immediately
2) Buy backs over time guarantee consistent upward market price movement
3) That stimulation is not included in the Inf Est
a. The Inflation Est is simply the max value in 2007 and its inflated relation today
b. The Inflation Est is a control value that only shows existing liquidity in market
At the time of 2007 excluding buy back stimulus event
(hard to get exact numbers so include a +-10% error at a 90% confidence interval)
What does this tell us? We are above peak value of 520, in consideration of the stimulus being applied over time in buy backs and inflating the market over the last 15+ years, we have a high probability chance that we are at peak investment liquidity and upward movement can be delayed for the next 5-10 years in the form of a major correction to market valuation.
1 minute ago
Trade active
Inf Est since 2007 using adjusted 6.7% year by year inflation
Peak Yr 2007 2015 2020 2022 2025
M.Val 162 213 340 475 613
Inf Est 0 272 376 428 520
Why does the M. Val eventually exceed the Inflation Estimated Value?
Consider the buy backs from stimulus that entered the market after GFC.
1) In no way will they max out on buy backs immediately
2) Buy backs over time guarantee consistent upward market price movement
3) That stimulation is not included in the Inf Est
a. The Inflation Est is simply the max value in 2007 and its inflated relation today
b. The Inflation Est is a control value that only shows existing liquidity in market
At the time of 2007 excluding buy back stimulus event
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.