📉 SPY Breakdown – May 16, 2025
Posted by ThePlotThickens
We’re hitting resistance at the top of this price channel, and I think we drop to 585-587 tomorrow. I believe the market has topped for now.
Most of the market looks weak, overbought tapping resistance walls, except for the big tech names that just keep running (especially chip stocks — total madness. Endless speculative market cap for chips lol). But overall, it feels like things are starting to slow down, not dumpy per se.
👉 Key Levels:
We’re right at the bottom of the Feb 2–5 weekly candle, when the Trump tariffs were dropped. This is a major support zone, and a lot of traders are watching it. Also, a quick reminder — weekly candles are super important right now. They show the bigger trend and are way more reliable than just looking at daily moves.
We might still tap the low of this week’s candle, but I believe 575 is the real line in the sand. That level marked the start of our bull run. As long as we stay above it, the long-term trend still looks strong.
💸 Short-term outlook:
I expect profit-taking tomorrow — probably a red day. Even if Trump tweets again, I doubt it does much unless he removes all tariffs (which would be wild). It took 6 weeks to get here.
📌 My main point:
Keep your eyes on 575 support. If we close the weekly candle above that, bulls are still in control. That’s the psychological level most traders are watching. If we drop below, we could revisit lower zones before trying to go higher again.
🔴 Channel Resistance at the top — The “toppy” zone where price is struggling.
🟠 Short-term target at 583-585 — Where you expect a drop.
🟢 Major Support at 575 — The key psychological and technical level.
🔴 Watch Zone below 575 — Where bulls could lose momentum.
Posted by ThePlotThickens
We’re hitting resistance at the top of this price channel, and I think we drop to 585-587 tomorrow. I believe the market has topped for now.
Most of the market looks weak, overbought tapping resistance walls, except for the big tech names that just keep running (especially chip stocks — total madness. Endless speculative market cap for chips lol). But overall, it feels like things are starting to slow down, not dumpy per se.
👉 Key Levels:
We’re right at the bottom of the Feb 2–5 weekly candle, when the Trump tariffs were dropped. This is a major support zone, and a lot of traders are watching it. Also, a quick reminder — weekly candles are super important right now. They show the bigger trend and are way more reliable than just looking at daily moves.
We might still tap the low of this week’s candle, but I believe 575 is the real line in the sand. That level marked the start of our bull run. As long as we stay above it, the long-term trend still looks strong.
💸 Short-term outlook:
I expect profit-taking tomorrow — probably a red day. Even if Trump tweets again, I doubt it does much unless he removes all tariffs (which would be wild). It took 6 weeks to get here.
📌 My main point:
Keep your eyes on 575 support. If we close the weekly candle above that, bulls are still in control. That’s the psychological level most traders are watching. If we drop below, we could revisit lower zones before trying to go higher again.
🔴 Channel Resistance at the top — The “toppy” zone where price is struggling.
🟠 Short-term target at 583-585 — Where you expect a drop.
🟢 Major Support at 575 — The key psychological and technical level.
🔴 Watch Zone below 575 — Where bulls could lose momentum.
Note
OPEX is tomorrow. This grind up with no pull backs make more sense because of this. Bull trap.Note
TRUMP Pump tweets - We had 3-4 tweets this morning that has pushed us passed 590 and all about establishing NEW trade for the Americans. HUGELY bullish for the American economy.Note
UPDATE: TRUMP TWEETS this morning have been a WILD CARD!- Donald Trump says US will set new tariff rates for scores of countries
- Business potential with IRAN
- 'We're making great progress towards a $1.4 TRILLION dollars that UAE has announced that it intends to spend in the United States.'
- Continued to state ´incredible investments coming back to the USA ´.
- Tayler Swift tweet lmao
Trade active
Wow, what a day this had been!!*Trump tweets, dump, V shape retrace at 1030am, NEW highs and an incredible AFTER HOURS DUMP...
SPY ended the regular trading day at $594.20, but after the market closed, the price dropped hard to $588.00.
This is a big move down after hours, showing a loss of $6.20 from the regular close.
The weekly candle closed at $588.26, down $5.94 or 1.00%, mostly because of the late-day selloff. If SPY stays below $590, we could see more downside next week.
Note
May29th !Hey yá´ll!
Wild 48 Hours: News & Market Swings
The past couple of days have been packed with volatility and headlines.
Late in yesterday's session, a federal judge ruled Trump’s tariffs unconstitutional. But by midday today, Trump had already filed an appeal, keeping the tariffs in place for now.
Markets initially rallied hard on the news — SPY hit $596.50 in after-hours trading, and ES1! pushed up to a high of $6008, breaking several short-term resistance levels.
Then came the GDP release and the 9:30 AM bell. The mood shifted fast — SPY dumped to a low of $587.16 (-1.76% from the AH high), while ES1! dropped sharply to $5884 — a steep fall from its earlier $6008 peak just 8 hours before.
Despite the chaos, SPY's daily change from yesterday’s close was a relatively modest +0.39%.
The question is, with only one trading day left in the month, let me know if you believe the market makers allow us to close out the month with $600 + ?
Note
SPY Monthly Candle CloseRange Holding, June 7th in Focus:
SPY wrapped the month within the 575–590 range, showing long wicks on both ends — a clear sign of indecision as the market continues to digest mixed macro signals.
Support Check: T
he 200-day MA at $577 is holding strong, serving as a key support level.
Macro Outlook:
Most of the recent noise including escalating China trade tensions, seems well priced in for now. buyers step in at the right moment and that´s above the 200 daily MA
Looking ahead, the market’s attention is on June 7th, when the pause on Canadian and Mexican trade negotiations ends. While there’s no confirmation of a deal, the potential for movement adds to the wait-and-see tone heading into June.
📌 Options Strategy Reminder:
Stick to 30–90 day expiries. With this chop-heavy environment and no clear breakout, short-dated options get eaten alive by theta and offer little room for recovery or trend confirmation.
In summary:
SPY’s still stuck in range. No strong catalyst yet. June 7th could change the tone — or not. Until then, stay patient and manage your time decay risk wisely.
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.