SPY Weekly review and forecast: August 22, 2022
Last week brought the first sell side activity the markets have seen in nearly 6 weeks. The market digested comments within the FED minutes as being dovish, and was on track to extend the rally through most of the week. The tone changed on Thursday and Friday and the market was unable to hold the 4300 level. Most of the selling was precipitated by technology and the financials, while energy finished positive on the week. Volatility has also begun to expand as the VIX finished positive on the week. The weekly expected move in the SPY is also greater than last week's by almost a full point. SKEW closed flat-to-down week over week, but is still in an uptrend.
*QQQ -2.28% (+/- 8.89)
*IWM -2.85 (+/- 4.97)
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*Technology -2.5% (+/- 4.09)
*Energy +1.26 (+/- 1.26)
*Financials -1.69% (+/- 0.83)
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* VIX: +12.19% (23.07; ~50% IV Percentile)
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The rally we've seen since June has been impressive, so a pull back was going to come eventually. Its important to zoom out and look at the big picture perspective. The market may have re-entered the sideways channel I outlined at the beginning of the month. I'm looking for this week to have a mildly bearish bias, but most probably staying within the expected move in advance of the FED's Jackson Hole meeting (so think between 4150 - 4300 in SPX). I'm going to be keeping a close eye on the Bonds as well as Energy. If the Bonds continue to fall, it will be more fuel on the inflation fire. With regards to energy, stocks like XOM are at key inflection points on their Volume Profiles; selling in energy now would weigh heavily on the indices.
- SPY -1.16% (+/- 8.3)
*QQQ -2.28% (+/- 8.89)
*IWM -2.85 (+/- 4.97)
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*Technology -2.5% (+/- 4.09)
*Energy +1.26 (+/- 1.26)
*Financials -1.69% (+/- 0.83)
____________________
* VIX: +12.19% (23.07; ~50% IV Percentile)
_____________________
The rally we've seen since June has been impressive, so a pull back was going to come eventually. Its important to zoom out and look at the big picture perspective. The market may have re-entered the sideways channel I outlined at the beginning of the month. I'm looking for this week to have a mildly bearish bias, but most probably staying within the expected move in advance of the FED's Jackson Hole meeting (so think between 4150 - 4300 in SPX). I'm going to be keeping a close eye on the Bonds as well as Energy. If the Bonds continue to fall, it will be more fuel on the inflation fire. With regards to energy, stocks like XOM are at key inflection points on their Volume Profiles; selling in energy now would weigh heavily on the indices.
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