SPY continues to respect an ascending channel but is currently pulling back from the upper boundary. The price action suggests a potential for further retracement or a bounce from support levels. With increasing selling momentum, tomorrow's session will be key to determining whether SPY maintains its bullish structure or breaks down. Here’s a detailed analysis and playbook for scalpers and swing traders.
Market Structure Overview:
* Trend: SPY remains in a bullish uptrend, trading within a clean ascending channel. The pullback, however, suggests short-term weakness.
* Current Price Action:
* The price has dropped below $606.22 and is heading toward the midline of the channel.
* Selling volume is increasing, signaling bearish momentum in the short term.
Key Levels to Watch:
* Resistance:
* $608.48: Immediate resistance at the recent high.
* $612: Upper channel boundary, acting as strong resistance.
* Support:
* $602.43: First level of support, aligned with previous consolidation.
* $597.32: Major horizontal support and the lower boundary of the channel.
* $594.15: Critical support level if the channel breaks down.
Liquidity Zones & Order Blocks:
* Liquidity Zones:
* Significant liquidity is below $602.43, with stops likely clustered near $600-$598.
* Order Blocks:
* Bullish OB: Between $597-$600, aligning with the lower channel boundary.
* Bearish OB: Near $608-$610, where selling pressure has emerged.
MACD & Volume Analysis:
* MACD: Shows bearish momentum as the MACD line crosses below the signal line, indicating potential for further downside.
* Volume: Selling volume is increasing, confirming the pullback, but watch for volume spikes near key support zones.
My Thoughts on Tomorrow’s Direction:
Tomorrow’s session will depend heavily on how SPY interacts with the $602-$597 support zone. Here’s what I expect:
1. Bullish Scenario:
* If SPY holds above $602 and we see buying volume during the pre-market or early trading session, expect a bounce back toward $606-$608. A break above $608 could lead to a retest of the $612 upper channel resistance.
* Catalysts such as positive economic data or strong tech sector performance could trigger this move.
2. Bearish Scenario:
* If SPY fails to hold $602 and breaks below $600, we could see accelerated selling toward $597 and potentially $594.
* Watch for increasing bearish volume and rejection near $602 on intraday tests to confirm a further move lower.
3. Key Indicator to Watch:
* Volume: Rising bullish volume near $602 would signal a potential reversal. Conversely, increasing bearish volume below $602 could confirm further downside.
Scalping Strategy:
* Entry:
* Long scalps at $602-$603 if the price shows signs of holding the support level.
* Short scalps at $606-$608 if price rejects resistance again.
* Exit:
* For longs, take profits near $605-$606.
* For shorts, target $600-$598.
* Stop-Loss:
* For longs: Below $600.
* For shorts: Above $608.50.
Swing Trading Strategy:
* Bullish Play:
* Wait for a bounce at $597-$600 support zone and enter long. Target $608, then $612 if momentum resumes.
* Bearish Play:
* If SPY fails to reclaim $606 convincingly, consider shorting with targets at $597 or lower.
* Stop-Loss:
* For longs: Below $597.
* For shorts: Above $608.
Game Plan for SPY Trading:
1. Pre-Market Prep:
* Monitor overnight futures to gauge sentiment.
* Mark $606 (resistance) and $597 (support) for intraday reactions.
2. Market Open Strategy:
* Observe the first 15-30 minutes to confirm direction.
* Look for rejection or bounce at key levels before entering trades.
3. Intraday Execution:
* Use the ascending channel to guide entries and exits.
* Keep a close eye on volume spikes for confirmation.
4. End of Day:
* Close intraday positions and reassess swing setups based on the closing structure.
Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Always conduct your own research and trade responsibly.
Market Structure Overview:
* Trend: SPY remains in a bullish uptrend, trading within a clean ascending channel. The pullback, however, suggests short-term weakness.
* Current Price Action:
* The price has dropped below $606.22 and is heading toward the midline of the channel.
* Selling volume is increasing, signaling bearish momentum in the short term.
Key Levels to Watch:
* Resistance:
* $608.48: Immediate resistance at the recent high.
* $612: Upper channel boundary, acting as strong resistance.
* Support:
* $602.43: First level of support, aligned with previous consolidation.
* $597.32: Major horizontal support and the lower boundary of the channel.
* $594.15: Critical support level if the channel breaks down.
Liquidity Zones & Order Blocks:
* Liquidity Zones:
* Significant liquidity is below $602.43, with stops likely clustered near $600-$598.
* Order Blocks:
* Bullish OB: Between $597-$600, aligning with the lower channel boundary.
* Bearish OB: Near $608-$610, where selling pressure has emerged.
MACD & Volume Analysis:
* MACD: Shows bearish momentum as the MACD line crosses below the signal line, indicating potential for further downside.
* Volume: Selling volume is increasing, confirming the pullback, but watch for volume spikes near key support zones.
My Thoughts on Tomorrow’s Direction:
Tomorrow’s session will depend heavily on how SPY interacts with the $602-$597 support zone. Here’s what I expect:
1. Bullish Scenario:
* If SPY holds above $602 and we see buying volume during the pre-market or early trading session, expect a bounce back toward $606-$608. A break above $608 could lead to a retest of the $612 upper channel resistance.
* Catalysts such as positive economic data or strong tech sector performance could trigger this move.
2. Bearish Scenario:
* If SPY fails to hold $602 and breaks below $600, we could see accelerated selling toward $597 and potentially $594.
* Watch for increasing bearish volume and rejection near $602 on intraday tests to confirm a further move lower.
3. Key Indicator to Watch:
* Volume: Rising bullish volume near $602 would signal a potential reversal. Conversely, increasing bearish volume below $602 could confirm further downside.
Scalping Strategy:
* Entry:
* Long scalps at $602-$603 if the price shows signs of holding the support level.
* Short scalps at $606-$608 if price rejects resistance again.
* Exit:
* For longs, take profits near $605-$606.
* For shorts, target $600-$598.
* Stop-Loss:
* For longs: Below $600.
* For shorts: Above $608.50.
Swing Trading Strategy:
* Bullish Play:
* Wait for a bounce at $597-$600 support zone and enter long. Target $608, then $612 if momentum resumes.
* Bearish Play:
* If SPY fails to reclaim $606 convincingly, consider shorting with targets at $597 or lower.
* Stop-Loss:
* For longs: Below $597.
* For shorts: Above $608.
Game Plan for SPY Trading:
1. Pre-Market Prep:
* Monitor overnight futures to gauge sentiment.
* Mark $606 (resistance) and $597 (support) for intraday reactions.
2. Market Open Strategy:
* Observe the first 15-30 minutes to confirm direction.
* Look for rejection or bounce at key levels before entering trades.
3. Intraday Execution:
* Use the ascending channel to guide entries and exits.
* Keep a close eye on volume spikes for confirmation.
4. End of Day:
* Close intraday positions and reassess swing setups based on the closing structure.
Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Always conduct your own research and trade responsibly.
Trade active
Looking at the updated chart, SPY has broken out of the descending triangle to the upside, which could indicate bullish momentum. Here’s a quick analysis:Observations:
1. Breakout: SPY has broken above the descending resistance line, suggesting a potential shift in sentiment to bullish in the short term.
2. Volume: The breakout appears to have modest support from volume, but you’ll want to see continued momentum to confirm the move.
3. Resistance Zone: There is resistance near 607.80–608.00, which could be a key level to watch. If SPY clears this level, it may test the next resistance levels around 608.50 or higher.
4. MACD: The MACD histogram is turning positive, signaling a potential bullish crossover.
Projection:
• Bullish Case: If SPY holds above 607.50 and breaks through 607.80–608.00, it could trend higher toward 608.50–609.00 by the end of the day.
• Bearish Case: If it falls back below 607.50, the breakout could fail, and SPY may retest support around 607.20–607.00.
Key Levels to Watch:
• Resistance: 607.80, 608.00, 608.50
• Support: 607.50, 607.20, 607.00
Monitor how SPY reacts to these levels to determine the next directional move.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.