Tip Of The Iceberg
Updated
Global markets are in free-fall. After losing key supports yesterday, US Futures extended losses, with the majors down around 2% on the open. Vix hit it's highest level since June with a 38 handle, and was up as much as 14% on the day this morning. With the senate adjourned until the 9th, and no deal in sight (before the election), along with a resurgence in COVID-19 cases and lockdowns across Europe, markets hit their lowest level in 3 weeks.
King Dollar is back and is up notably on the day as investors flee risk. Bitcoin is back at it's highest level since June, also. Oil is tanking on fears of a slowdown in demand, with Brent down over 4% today. Earnings continue to roll in, and we expect heightened volatility, and further downside for risk assets, off the back of weaker than expected earnings.
SPY saw a massive gap down on the open to 332.10, and is continuing it's journey toward the 100 day MA (330), which also happens to be at the 21 period EMA on the weekly. This is a key level to watch today, and if we see a break below 330, the train is headed straight to 320.
Thanks for your time today guys, and best of luck out there. Remember, stay tuned for live updates!
If you enjoyed today's analysis, please hit the Like button and subscribe to our profile. The information and analysis shared in this post is not financial advice. Always conduct your own analysis and research.
King Dollar is back and is up notably on the day as investors flee risk. Bitcoin is back at it's highest level since June, also. Oil is tanking on fears of a slowdown in demand, with Brent down over 4% today. Earnings continue to roll in, and we expect heightened volatility, and further downside for risk assets, off the back of weaker than expected earnings.
SPY saw a massive gap down on the open to 332.10, and is continuing it's journey toward the 100 day MA (330), which also happens to be at the 21 period EMA on the weekly. This is a key level to watch today, and if we see a break below 330, the train is headed straight to 320.
Thanks for your time today guys, and best of luck out there. Remember, stay tuned for live updates!
If you enjoyed today's analysis, please hit the Like button and subscribe to our profile. The information and analysis shared in this post is not financial advice. Always conduct your own analysis and research.
Note
We just lost the 100 day MA and 21 period EMA on the weekly at 330. As I mentioned, if the bulls fail to keep us above this level, the train is headed straight to 320. Vix is now up a whopping 19% on the day, and the Nasdaq is now down over 3%. If we see a margin call on the FED put today, we'll be down 6% before you can blink...Note
All the majors are now down 3%+ (with the exception of small caps, which aren't far behind). European markets are tumbling, and are now down over 4%. SPY filled the gap from Sep 25th, and made a new LOD at 327.58, moments ago, as losses accelerate into the afternoon session. We may see a technical bounce here, but things are not looking good for risk assets at the moment. Imo the worse is yet to come...
Note
Small bounce here. Looks like we're making a run for the 100 day MA at 330. This should now act as resistance (polarity principle), and set us up for another leg lower. Let's see what happens next...Note
Vix back at 38 after hitting a high of 40.50 around mid-morning. I imagine many traders are taking profits on their shorts/hedges right now. Well done to all, your positions were, to say the least, contrarian. But, make no mistake guys, vol is still cheap, and the market is still frothy. All of the risks remain the same, and a 3% dip changes nothing.Note
Clear rejection off the 100 day MA, and we're now sitting near the LOD. Vix back at 39.50, and begging for a revisit of the June high's around 44. I think if Vix rises any higher, we may start to see margin calls on the FED put...Note
SPY looking like it wants to revisit the Sep 24th lows of 319.80. I don't think it's impossible, given the current economic landscape...Note
This appears to be a complete cross-asset liquidation today, with the exception of bonds which are up marginally on the day. Even crypto, and Bitcoin in particular, are down notably on the day (over 3%). Crude is taking a beating and is down 6%. So where's all the cash going? Well, Vix is up 18% at the moment, and small caps are seeing the least damage of all the majors. Looks like good ole' hedging, and hence de-risking at play heading into the election...Note
Buy the dippers are out in full force. But, I'm seeing a bear flag here on the hourly, and it looks like it wants to take us lower. Perfect liquidity grab for the bears. Let's see if they take advantage...Note
Vix getting hammered here as we enter the final 30 minutes of trade. Spy catching a bid, and the bulls fighting hard to get us back above the 100 day MA at 330. Volume is looking stronger than it has in weeks.Note
There's a dam at 328, and if it breaks, it's all over...Note
Losses accelerating here into the close. Majors now down just under 4% with 5 minutes left in the cash market...Note
Vix just made a new high at 40.60...Note
That's all folks! Very bearish sentiment and price action blanketing global markets today. It was a sell everything event, with the dollar relatively soft and Vix being the only big winner. Spy closed at the LOD, with bearish price action into the close. After several attempts, the bulls were unable to keep us above the 100 day MA. I expect a swift move down to the 320 level where we may find interim support. Beyond that, I'm looking at 300 before we see a notable technical bounce. The risks are finally being priced into markets, and it would behoove all of us to trade with caution. Tomorrow is another day and I look forward to seeing you all at the main event. I appreciate your time today, and have a great night! Cheers, Michael.
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