FFS Will the SPY Ever Just Die Already?
If you're a bear and are feeling mighty pain right now, that's actually a very good sign. Once the bears feel max pain, that's precisely when the market finally rolls over. But don't give in to the pain, my fellow bears, this rally is totally fake and don't let anyone make you believe otherwise.
What I'm seeing is a very clear 3-wave structure beginning on the lows from the 4th. If the first and third leg end up being the same length (they don't have to), then we could go all up to about SPY 294, but I really hope we don't. This rally is criminal and even offensive at this point. So long as we stay ender the high made on the 29th, we still have a head and shoulders pattern in play, or if we come really close to that high, we would then have a double top, also a good bearish pattern.
The whole goal of a bear market rally is to make the bears doubt themselves, and make as many of them who have committed already as broke as possible, so I honestly wouldn't be surprised if they even nudged it just beyond that high. There is a very microscopic gap they could even try to fill (purple box) but golly that feels like a mile away. There's just no volume during the cash market to get it up there, so they would have to gap it up hard to get it there. I'm skeptical that they can get away with that.
I keep saying we're very close, and we are. Now we're very, very close. And I'll keep saying that until every person who has lost their job has found one again. Until then, this is a fake rally.
If we go up again, and again? So be it: then we're very, very, very close. A very big drop is coming, and it's coming fast. One of these days we're going to wake up to a big gap down and we won't see these numbers ont he SPY for a very long time, I expect.
What I'm seeing is a very clear 3-wave structure beginning on the lows from the 4th. If the first and third leg end up being the same length (they don't have to), then we could go all up to about SPY 294, but I really hope we don't. This rally is criminal and even offensive at this point. So long as we stay ender the high made on the 29th, we still have a head and shoulders pattern in play, or if we come really close to that high, we would then have a double top, also a good bearish pattern.
The whole goal of a bear market rally is to make the bears doubt themselves, and make as many of them who have committed already as broke as possible, so I honestly wouldn't be surprised if they even nudged it just beyond that high. There is a very microscopic gap they could even try to fill (purple box) but golly that feels like a mile away. There's just no volume during the cash market to get it up there, so they would have to gap it up hard to get it there. I'm skeptical that they can get away with that.
I keep saying we're very close, and we are. Now we're very, very close. And I'll keep saying that until every person who has lost their job has found one again. Until then, this is a fake rally.
If we go up again, and again? So be it: then we're very, very, very close. A very big drop is coming, and it's coming fast. One of these days we're going to wake up to a big gap down and we won't see these numbers ont he SPY for a very long time, I expect.
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