This is a simple mean-reversion bet. As you can see, it's rare for the index to go more than 800 days without revisiting this long-term trendline. There's nothing special about the trendline, it's just a moderately aggressive rate of price appreciation that fits the log chart pretty well.
I would trade this idea by purchasing a SPY 455 Put with April 2025 expiration.
This has not mean-reverted as quickly as I had hoped. I'm now targeting January 2026 insted of April 2025. I'm also focusing on individual stocks that I think are extremely overbought, including LYV, COST, and SPOT.
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.