Looking at SPY on the daily chart, it’s been riding a solid recovery wave from that sharp drop in early April. The last seven sessions have all printed green candles, showing persistent demand — but now we’re pressing right into the resistance zone around $554–$555, which aligns with the top of a previous range before that breakdown. The MACD histogram is still rising, showing bullish momentum, and the Stoch RSI is curled up in overbought territory. That’s not a sell signal on its own — it just means we’re extended and probably due for a cooldown.
When I zoom into the 1-hour chart, I notice something more subtle — SPY has been grinding up within a rising wedge. The candles are getting tighter near the top channel line, and volume is starting to fade a bit. That tells me we’re at a spot where either momentum explodes higher... or this move starts to stall out.
Now, overlay that with the GEX map, and here’s what jumps out:
* $555 is a thick cluster of Call Wall and Net GEX resistance — 44.9% of second-tier call positioning is stacked there.
* Above that, $557–$560 also has GEX walls, so upside beyond $555 could get sold into unless we see strong breakout volume.
* On the flip side, $547 and $545 remain the nearest areas of downside gamma support — price tends to bounce off these zones if tested.
My Thoughts: We’re reaching a point where the path of least resistance might shift. If bulls can decisively break above $555, especially with volume and a GEX unwind, there’s room toward $557–$560. But if we get stuck here and break below $552, I’d expect some profit-taking down toward $547–$545.
Trade Setups I’d Consider:
* Bullish Breakout Trade: Above $555 with volume Entry: $556 Target: $559–$560 Stop: $553.50 (Ideal with IV still relatively low and GEX unwinding from that zone)
* Fade Rejection Play (If SPY can’t clear $555): Entry: ~$554 with reversal candle Target: $547 Stop: $556 (Volume weakness + rising wedge breakdown would support this)
Options Thoughts:
* IVR is at 29, with IVx lower than the average — premium is relatively cheap.
* GEX shows 89% PUTs, which might seem bearish, but it also suggests market makers could support pullbacks for now.
* A $555C or $560C for this week is a high-risk chase — I’d only grab it if SPY breaks and holds above $555.
* Safer might be a put debit spread targeting $547 if the rising wedge breaks down.
This week could be pivotal. SPY has had a strong run, but now it’s flirting with a crowded options zone. Watch the $555 level closely — that’s where the real decision likely gets made.
When I zoom into the 1-hour chart, I notice something more subtle — SPY has been grinding up within a rising wedge. The candles are getting tighter near the top channel line, and volume is starting to fade a bit. That tells me we’re at a spot where either momentum explodes higher... or this move starts to stall out.
Now, overlay that with the GEX map, and here’s what jumps out:
* $555 is a thick cluster of Call Wall and Net GEX resistance — 44.9% of second-tier call positioning is stacked there.
* Above that, $557–$560 also has GEX walls, so upside beyond $555 could get sold into unless we see strong breakout volume.
* On the flip side, $547 and $545 remain the nearest areas of downside gamma support — price tends to bounce off these zones if tested.
My Thoughts: We’re reaching a point where the path of least resistance might shift. If bulls can decisively break above $555, especially with volume and a GEX unwind, there’s room toward $557–$560. But if we get stuck here and break below $552, I’d expect some profit-taking down toward $547–$545.
Trade Setups I’d Consider:
* Bullish Breakout Trade: Above $555 with volume Entry: $556 Target: $559–$560 Stop: $553.50 (Ideal with IV still relatively low and GEX unwinding from that zone)
* Fade Rejection Play (If SPY can’t clear $555): Entry: ~$554 with reversal candle Target: $547 Stop: $556 (Volume weakness + rising wedge breakdown would support this)
Options Thoughts:
* IVR is at 29, with IVx lower than the average — premium is relatively cheap.
* GEX shows 89% PUTs, which might seem bearish, but it also suggests market makers could support pullbacks for now.
* A $555C or $560C for this week is a high-risk chase — I’d only grab it if SPY breaks and holds above $555.
* Safer might be a put debit spread targeting $547 if the rising wedge breaks down.
This week could be pivotal. SPY has had a strong run, but now it’s flirting with a crowded options zone. Watch the $555 level closely — that’s where the real decision likely gets made.
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.