Current Market Structure
* SPY is moving within an ascending channel, with higher highs and higher lows.
* The price is currently consolidating just below the key resistance level of $609.07, indicating indecision.
* The MACD indicator is flat, with a potential crossover, suggesting a possible breakout or breakdown in the near term.
Key Levels to Watch
1. Resistance:
* $609.07: The recent swing high.
* $610.50: Psychological and technical resistance above.
2. Support:
* $607.00: Near-term support at the ascending trendline.
* $605.72: Strong horizontal support, aligning with the base of the channel.
Technical Indicators
* 9 EMA: The price is hovering near the EMA, suggesting indecision. A close above this could trigger bullish momentum.
* MACD: Neutral, but any crossover above the signal line would support a bullish breakout.
* Volume: Volume remains low during the consolidation phase, so watch for a spike to confirm any breakout.
Price Action Scenarios
1. Bullish Scenario:
* If SPY breaks above $609.07 with strong volume, the next targets are $610.50 and $612.00.
* Entry: Buy at the break of $609.50.
* Stop Loss: $607.00.
* Take Profit: Scale out at $610.50 and $612.00.
2. Bearish Scenario:
* If SPY breaks below $605.72, the next targets are $604.00 and $602.50.
* Entry: Sell at the break of $605.50.
* Stop Loss: $607.50.
* Take Profit: Scale out at $604.00 and $602.50.
Trading Plan
1. Scalping:
* Focus on breakouts above resistance or below support with tight stop losses.
* Monitor volume and MACD for confirmation of momentum.
2. Swing Trading:
* Buy on retests of $607.00 if the price confirms the support level.
* Short if the price breaks and retests $605.72.
Thoughts
* The current consolidation suggests a potential breakout is imminent. Pay close attention to volume and how SPY reacts to $609.07 and $605.72.
* With MACD neutral, confirmation through price action and volume is essential before entering trades.
* SPY is moving within an ascending channel, with higher highs and higher lows.
* The price is currently consolidating just below the key resistance level of $609.07, indicating indecision.
* The MACD indicator is flat, with a potential crossover, suggesting a possible breakout or breakdown in the near term.
Key Levels to Watch
1. Resistance:
* $609.07: The recent swing high.
* $610.50: Psychological and technical resistance above.
2. Support:
* $607.00: Near-term support at the ascending trendline.
* $605.72: Strong horizontal support, aligning with the base of the channel.
Technical Indicators
* 9 EMA: The price is hovering near the EMA, suggesting indecision. A close above this could trigger bullish momentum.
* MACD: Neutral, but any crossover above the signal line would support a bullish breakout.
* Volume: Volume remains low during the consolidation phase, so watch for a spike to confirm any breakout.
Price Action Scenarios
1. Bullish Scenario:
* If SPY breaks above $609.07 with strong volume, the next targets are $610.50 and $612.00.
* Entry: Buy at the break of $609.50.
* Stop Loss: $607.00.
* Take Profit: Scale out at $610.50 and $612.00.
2. Bearish Scenario:
* If SPY breaks below $605.72, the next targets are $604.00 and $602.50.
* Entry: Sell at the break of $605.50.
* Stop Loss: $607.50.
* Take Profit: Scale out at $604.00 and $602.50.
Trading Plan
1. Scalping:
* Focus on breakouts above resistance or below support with tight stop losses.
* Monitor volume and MACD for confirmation of momentum.
2. Swing Trading:
* Buy on retests of $607.00 if the price confirms the support level.
* Short if the price breaks and retests $605.72.
Thoughts
* The current consolidation suggests a potential breakout is imminent. Pay close attention to volume and how SPY reacts to $609.07 and $605.72.
* With MACD neutral, confirmation through price action and volume is essential before entering trades.
Trade active
observations and projections for the rest of the trading day:Current Price Action:
SPY appears to be trending downward, forming lower highs (LH) and lower lows (LL) intraday.
A key level to watch is the intraday support at $604.61, which, if broken, could lead to further downside momentum.
Delta volume indicates selling pressure outweighing buying interest, reinforcing the bearish sentiment.
Immediate Levels to Watch:
Support Levels:
$604.61 (current low): A break here could send SPY toward $602-$600, which are significant psychological and technical levels.
Resistance Levels:
$606.50–$607: This range has multiple FVG (Fair Value Gap) rejections, acting as strong resistance. Bulls need to reclaim this level to reverse momentum.
Likely Scenarios:
Bearish Case:
If $604.61 breaks, expect further declines toward $602 or even $600, especially if selling pressure persists.
Bullish Case:
If SPY manages to hold $604.61 and rebound, a retest of $606.50–$607 could occur, but strong resistance is likely.
Consolidation near the $605 level is also possible if neither bulls nor bears gain decisive control.
End-of-Day Projection:
Given the bearish structure and lack of strong bullish catalysts intraday, SPY may close near or below the $605 level.
A close below $604.61 would confirm bearish continuation into tomorrow's session, whereas a reclaim of $607 would indicate stabilization.
Key Note: Monitor volume and price action near the $604.61 level to determine the direction of the next significant move.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.