Background. Easy confluence trade. We had the largest and fastest rally in stock history from 2022 to now. Everyone who loaded up at $380-430 is ready to take some profits. After the tariff announcements, we sold off hard through a bunch of levels and trendlines down to the bottom of the longer term uptrend.
Current situation. We have retraced back up to the first major supply area, where everyone who bought the dip back in march went long. They've been underwater and are ready to sell for scratch. This will drive the price back down. Maybe the end of a long term uptrend. Maybe just leg 2 of the tariff drop, back down to the trendline. I can't know that.
Delta. If you look at the volume footprint chart, there has been a huge negative delta this whole rally. Prices are going up but the larger players are selling into it. Essentially, the last 2 weeks have been driven up by main street, while wall street unloads. Once there are enough bagholders, the floor can fall out. Here's the weekly delta.
Trading Approach. This is a good point to initiate the start of a long term short position. Like, buying puts 1-2 years out with a $450 target, a gap that's never been filled. I think it's also a good swing entry but with closer targets. On the more pessimistic attitude, after the tariffs, the world started the process of dethroning America as leader of the free world. There's a lot of gravity pulling down to $250 and if the world fully turns on the US, that's where we're heading.
Current situation. We have retraced back up to the first major supply area, where everyone who bought the dip back in march went long. They've been underwater and are ready to sell for scratch. This will drive the price back down. Maybe the end of a long term uptrend. Maybe just leg 2 of the tariff drop, back down to the trendline. I can't know that.
Delta. If you look at the volume footprint chart, there has been a huge negative delta this whole rally. Prices are going up but the larger players are selling into it. Essentially, the last 2 weeks have been driven up by main street, while wall street unloads. Once there are enough bagholders, the floor can fall out. Here's the weekly delta.
Trading Approach. This is a good point to initiate the start of a long term short position. Like, buying puts 1-2 years out with a $450 target, a gap that's never been filled. I think it's also a good swing entry but with closer targets. On the more pessimistic attitude, after the tariffs, the world started the process of dethroning America as leader of the free world. There's a lot of gravity pulling down to $250 and if the world fully turns on the US, that's where we're heading.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.