Morning Notes: 04/30/19 Trading Environment-Short Term: Current Environment-Neutral/Bearish
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Hi Everyone,
Futures are being pulled in different directions this morning, something i did mention in last night's video report with the GOOG earnings miss. Nasdaq is getting crushed, so money is rotating to the weakest link with expectations of new all-time highs coming for the Dow. The /ES is neutral as it typical does when we have a futures battle between up/down. I am just thinking outside the box here, but one could make a market neutral trade being long the Dow and short the SPX. If they both go up, this trade would anticipate the Dow moving up more than the spx, being it is the only index not making new all-time highs. If the Dow heads lower, the expectations would be the SPX would move down harder than the Dow.
This has nothing to do with technicals or sentiment, it is a "I have seen this trade set up before" and whether it works again or not, that is something we will find out soon enough. From a technical view, the bearish divergences on the spx are still in place and the wave structure is very mature-and this wave 5 could end anywhere up here and fit the wave structure. If we do see a top in the coming minutes/hours/days, expecting a 23%-38% retracement is typical for this pattern. 23%=2808 and 38%=2720. Since the December lows, the SPX has moved up 600 points and we have not seen a pull back more than 23%.
The Bulls/Bears are 2 totally different creatures. On the way down from the October highs, the SPX had a couple 38% bounces and a 62% retracement. The low was made some 600 points lower from the highs. As I mentioned above, the bulls have taken the SPX up 600+ points with only one 23% retracement along the way. This is why when we get into the "Kill Zone" time period, it won't take a lot to send this market back down toward the lows or more again. Many traders/investors who watched the move from the 2350 lows, didn't get long until 2750 or higher. Just a 38% retracement may have many underwater with positions, and that is not a crazy pullback.
But we have a little more time before we enter the "Kill Zone, but be prepared, this is an all-in all-out trading environment. The last time we were bearish on all time frames was in September/October and we saw what took place then. The short/intermediate term bullish reading from December definitely surprised me with the non-stop buying episodes we have seen for the past 5 months. But the market will do what it is going to do!
The range SPX range for today is 2949 high and 2936 low. A break of 2949 the spx should try for 2955/2960. A push below 2936 we could see 2924/2915. G
SPX CASH 60 minute Technicals
Stochastics: Overbought
Divergences- Bearish Divergences
Resistance Levels: R1-2949 R2-2955 R3 2960
Support Levels: S1-2936 S2-2924 S3 2915
Trending Pivots: Neutral
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1.) like our post with a thumbs up (each post)
2.) follow us-you will be alerted via email with each post we enter
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Hi Everyone,
Futures are being pulled in different directions this morning, something i did mention in last night's video report with the GOOG earnings miss. Nasdaq is getting crushed, so money is rotating to the weakest link with expectations of new all-time highs coming for the Dow. The /ES is neutral as it typical does when we have a futures battle between up/down. I am just thinking outside the box here, but one could make a market neutral trade being long the Dow and short the SPX. If they both go up, this trade would anticipate the Dow moving up more than the spx, being it is the only index not making new all-time highs. If the Dow heads lower, the expectations would be the SPX would move down harder than the Dow.
This has nothing to do with technicals or sentiment, it is a "I have seen this trade set up before" and whether it works again or not, that is something we will find out soon enough. From a technical view, the bearish divergences on the spx are still in place and the wave structure is very mature-and this wave 5 could end anywhere up here and fit the wave structure. If we do see a top in the coming minutes/hours/days, expecting a 23%-38% retracement is typical for this pattern. 23%=2808 and 38%=2720. Since the December lows, the SPX has moved up 600 points and we have not seen a pull back more than 23%.
The Bulls/Bears are 2 totally different creatures. On the way down from the October highs, the SPX had a couple 38% bounces and a 62% retracement. The low was made some 600 points lower from the highs. As I mentioned above, the bulls have taken the SPX up 600+ points with only one 23% retracement along the way. This is why when we get into the "Kill Zone" time period, it won't take a lot to send this market back down toward the lows or more again. Many traders/investors who watched the move from the 2350 lows, didn't get long until 2750 or higher. Just a 38% retracement may have many underwater with positions, and that is not a crazy pullback.
But we have a little more time before we enter the "Kill Zone, but be prepared, this is an all-in all-out trading environment. The last time we were bearish on all time frames was in September/October and we saw what took place then. The short/intermediate term bullish reading from December definitely surprised me with the non-stop buying episodes we have seen for the past 5 months. But the market will do what it is going to do!
The range SPX range for today is 2949 high and 2936 low. A break of 2949 the spx should try for 2955/2960. A push below 2936 we could see 2924/2915. G
SPX CASH 60 minute Technicals
Stochastics: Overbought
Divergences- Bearish Divergences
Resistance Levels: R1-2949 R2-2955 R3 2960
Support Levels: S1-2936 S2-2924 S3 2915
Trending Pivots: Neutral
Note
05/01/19 Morning Notes
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.