Technical Analysis:
Wave Structure (Elliott Wave)
• Wave 1–2: Early 2020 correction (COVID crash) marked a clear wave 2 bottom.
• Wave 3: Strong impulsive rally from mid-2020 to late 2021 — massive liquidity-driven.
• Wave 4: 2022–2023 pullback — clean retracement to ~0.382 Fib, validating wave structure.
• Wave 5: Parabolic final rally peaking around $550–560 (currently topping or topping out).
Bearish Signals:
• Volume divergence — Price up, but monthly volume flat-to-declining. Distribution behavior.
• Completed 5-wave structure — Indicates exhaustion.
• (A)-(B)-(C) Correction Starting: The projection shows:
• Wave A targeting ~$420–440.
• Wave B dead cat bounce.
• Wave C projecting a deeper correction into $300–340 zone (around 0.5 to 0.618 retracement).
Fibonacci Confluence Zones:
• 0.382 = ~$450
• 0.5 = ~$390
• 0.618 = ~$340
These zones will act as major liquidity pools for institutional entries or macro rebalancing.
Macro Headwinds Fuel the Narrative:
• Sticky inflation
• Rising interest payments on U.S. debt
• Deteriorating liquidity (QT regime)
• Over-leveraged consumer and commercial debt sectors
Wave Structure (Elliott Wave)
• Wave 1–2: Early 2020 correction (COVID crash) marked a clear wave 2 bottom.
• Wave 3: Strong impulsive rally from mid-2020 to late 2021 — massive liquidity-driven.
• Wave 4: 2022–2023 pullback — clean retracement to ~0.382 Fib, validating wave structure.
• Wave 5: Parabolic final rally peaking around $550–560 (currently topping or topping out).
Bearish Signals:
• Volume divergence — Price up, but monthly volume flat-to-declining. Distribution behavior.
• Completed 5-wave structure — Indicates exhaustion.
• (A)-(B)-(C) Correction Starting: The projection shows:
• Wave A targeting ~$420–440.
• Wave B dead cat bounce.
• Wave C projecting a deeper correction into $300–340 zone (around 0.5 to 0.618 retracement).
Fibonacci Confluence Zones:
• 0.382 = ~$450
• 0.5 = ~$390
• 0.618 = ~$340
These zones will act as major liquidity pools for institutional entries or macro rebalancing.
Macro Headwinds Fuel the Narrative:
• Sticky inflation
• Rising interest payments on U.S. debt
• Deteriorating liquidity (QT regime)
• Over-leveraged consumer and commercial debt sectors
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.