Hello friends. I have found the perfect trade, and I went all in with my entire account because my conviction is so high that I can say I'm 99.9% sure that I will be correct. I have never been this confident about a trade in my entire career to date.
I have purchased six figures in put contracts on the SPY and SPX because I can see that a crash is about to happen. Here are a few of the factors that I am looking at which have made me so confident.
1) Retail is frantically buying the dip as well as the rip, and they are almost always wrong & lose money. Meanwhile, smart money has been selling this whole time.
2) My wave theory shows a clear WXY pattern that has now been completed. We can't currently be in an impulsive wave to the upside because there is too much overlapping.
3) Trade deal is NOT coming soon. Polymarket predicts only 19% odds for a US-China trade deal to happen before June. The tariff situation does not look good, and it isn't priced in anymore as we have retraced the entire tariff dump already.
4) The market is currently trading far above liquidity based fair value, which has been plummeting in recent weeks indicating that a drop is bound to happen soon for risk prices. To reach the fair price, the SPY should trade about 30% lower than current prices. This gives us enormous room for a cascade to the downside.
I have purchased six figures in put contracts on the SPY and SPX because I can see that a crash is about to happen. Here are a few of the factors that I am looking at which have made me so confident.
1) Retail is frantically buying the dip as well as the rip, and they are almost always wrong & lose money. Meanwhile, smart money has been selling this whole time.
2) My wave theory shows a clear WXY pattern that has now been completed. We can't currently be in an impulsive wave to the upside because there is too much overlapping.
3) Trade deal is NOT coming soon. Polymarket predicts only 19% odds for a US-China trade deal to happen before June. The tariff situation does not look good, and it isn't priced in anymore as we have retraced the entire tariff dump already.
4) The market is currently trading far above liquidity based fair value, which has been plummeting in recent weeks indicating that a drop is bound to happen soon for risk prices. To reach the fair price, the SPY should trade about 30% lower than current prices. This gives us enormous room for a cascade to the downside.
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.