SPY January, 2001 Replay?
Updated
The price action we've seen since October looks a lot like the tech bubble of Y2K. The economy was just a tad more organic back in Y2K so our price action may not have as much drama. Using the first tech bubble as a model, the graph shows what will most likely happen. IF .....it plays out in the same fashion then we have to wait till February before this 'algo driven market' snaps under its own weight. Hey, its an idea. We'll see.
Comment
Monday, Feb 4, 2019 is a Micro New Moon. Any affect on SP 500? Do we have a replay of Oct 2000 -> March 2001? We'll see.Comment
Italy is now officially in recession. Germany is soon to be in recession. We'll know for sure on Valentines Day.Japan had 2 quarters of negative GDP in 2018 but not consecutive.
Comment
We just have to get past that right shoulder and we'll be off to the races.Comment
Having broken the 200 DMA, it looks like the bulls are aiming for the last topper before the drop on December 3rd. Next level up would be 278-279 range. That's about 1.3% from here. This should be our pivot point. Left shoulder in view with a head forming.Comment
Progress is slowing to a snails pace on the rally front. Tomorrow we get the FOMC meeting minutes. We may actually get to 279 by 2pm EST.Comment
We've finally tapped 279. We've tapped this level 3 times since the drop in October. All three have failed. Given the bullishness(higher now than it was in October), I think we'll grind up towards 281-282 before a capitulation by this time next week. We'll see.Comment
Now begins the flatline of daily grinding within a 2 % range... before the drop. There is only one piece of news that is left that the market rallies on while ignoring all else.... US-China trade talks. The elephant in the room is that China is already in full on recession. Trade talks are something of a mute point. Is the market euphoric or has it just stepped into the biggest bull trap of all time. I'd say a lot of both.Comment
Check out the nasdaq sentiment meter. It's coming off an all time high. Judging by the previous peaks its going to come down fast. market-harmonics.com/free-charts/sentiment/nasdaq_sentiment.htm
Comment
The TRIN chart is looking grim. Note the graph is inverted so positive is down. On Short Term chart, March of 2019 looks like November'18(with possible Dec. bounce before the plunge). Looking at the intermediate, the last 4 times its been at this magnitude (1.25) and direction(headed down on graph) was in mid-December, mid-November(dead cat bounce),mid-October, March into April, and February of last year. Being that all these were down months does not bode well for the month of March 2019. I'm convinced that stock buy backs and portfolio alignment played a MAJOR role in propping up February to keep this bear rally alive. market-harmonics.com/free-charts/volume/newtrin.htm
Now come the downgrades in YoY earnings for 1st quarter 2019 earnings. The "trade agreement rallies" will end as you cannot ignore immediate earnings degradation and outlook. The blinders will come off. The market will drop.
All that being said, we'll see a BTD Monday, possibly into Wednesday before the reality kicks in. Thursday-Friday will see the drop.
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