SPY versus Rates—Recession Watch
Updated
The market is applying the rule of thumb that inversions in the 2y10y curve are 12-24 month leading indicators of recession. This rule of thumb no longer applies in the global NIRP environment. 2008 saw fewer leading inversions than 2001. This time time there were none at all—the crash has already begun. SPY <150 in 2020.
Comment
7. should read Feb 2018-2019, apologies.Comment
Sorry, the indicators screwed up the alignment of the text. New to this...Comment
You can make the indicators smaller and drag them to the bottom; makes it more readable.Comment
Also in error: the 3m10y was inverted for 3m months until last Friday, not a full year. Doesn't really affect the analysis much.
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