Strong Reversal SPY/SPX IH
Fundamentals: Slowing growth from Google and Microsoft continued our confirmation of a slowing macro environment. Microsoft reporting slowing growth in cloud revenue. Google even said their strongest ad flow of "search" saw a decline in revenue. Ad spend being the canary in the coal mine indicates the market is ready to continue it's collapse. META continues to blow through cash to build the metaverse.
-3 month/10 year yields inverted
-Yields/Dollar continue their climb - taking a break the last couple of days.
-BOJ intervention
-Canadian central bank increasing just .5
-Chinese Xi reigns again and this time with complete dominance - Speaks of a great challenge ahead - Taiwan in the crosshairs
-Russians talking nuclear attacks
Technical Analysis: The low from Sept 6th, the downward sloping trendline from August 26th, the 50 day MA, combined with the upward trend line from the recent lows created a strong resistance after a 3.5 day run up. ES1! futures stopping a few ticks below 3900. 3 day pumps are the norm.
-Gap at 408.6, 200 MA and downward trend line from the ATH creating the next target to the upside.
Outlook: I definitely believe there is more downside ahead for the markets into 2023. Although today's price action and macro indicators are pointing down that does not guarantee we have seen the end of this rally. Upside gap to 408.6 is being eyed by the bulls. Perhaps by no coincidence the 200 MA is closing in on that price. Those combined with the downward trend line point to a mid November rally adjourning. Bulls looking to load back up around 375 SPY. Breaking through 375 shows the bears have gained control and we have entered into a longer correction formation or new wave down.
-3 month/10 year yields inverted
-Yields/Dollar continue their climb - taking a break the last couple of days.
-BOJ intervention
-Canadian central bank increasing just .5
-Chinese Xi reigns again and this time with complete dominance - Speaks of a great challenge ahead - Taiwan in the crosshairs
-Russians talking nuclear attacks
Technical Analysis: The low from Sept 6th, the downward sloping trendline from August 26th, the 50 day MA, combined with the upward trend line from the recent lows created a strong resistance after a 3.5 day run up. ES1! futures stopping a few ticks below 3900. 3 day pumps are the norm.
-Gap at 408.6, 200 MA and downward trend line from the ATH creating the next target to the upside.
Outlook: I definitely believe there is more downside ahead for the markets into 2023. Although today's price action and macro indicators are pointing down that does not guarantee we have seen the end of this rally. Upside gap to 408.6 is being eyed by the bulls. Perhaps by no coincidence the 200 MA is closing in on that price. Those combined with the downward trend line point to a mid November rally adjourning. Bulls looking to load back up around 375 SPY. Breaking through 375 shows the bears have gained control and we have entered into a longer correction formation or new wave down.
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