SPY Daily Commentary | S/R

Updated

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Happy Monday!
Last week had a couple trap days and gap fills. But what's the path forward saying?
The daily shows the pattern of an attempted pullback, but it was promptly squashed. It's not an easy call for this week, but here's some things to consider.

Bulls Case:
Friday close was an inside bar of Thursday.
Heavy support going into the gap @ 331
Close above an important weekly S/R

Bear Case:
Stopped a 38% pullback, implying heavy pressure downward
Eliminated weeks of gains in a few days.
There's still gaps to fill under, down to 326 (which is also the big breakout since Aug)

All things considered, bears don't seem satisfied yet. It most certainly isn't the "big one" everyone hopes for. There's lots of significant supports that need to be held under.

important numbers today?
340 & 342.5 up
332.8ish & 331

Intraday will give more details regarding todays move.

Graveyard Shift / Morning Crew
Graveyard Shift: Nothing Special.

Morning Crew: Gap up. Tight range, suspicious

Futures Crew (/ES)
Coming back up in the flag channel. Bulls will need to cap and hold 3425 to get anywhere special. Bears on the otherhand need to cap 3300

Two big numbers today:
For Bears: 3425
For Bulls: 3300

Resistance levels
(Pre-Market) 337.83
(See Shared Chart)

Support levels
(Pre-Market) 337.08
(See Shared Chart)

Gaps
356.37 - 357.48
331-330.06
327.73-326.63

Extras
On the live chart, I typically run 5's and 15's. Because these are more intraday important, I'll be updating them as they come up. Be sure to check the live is you want more immediate results.

Re-evaluating the chart layout and have decided for simplicity and cleanliness. Important lines are in this presidence:
Black Solid Bold (Weekly S/R)
Gold Solid (Daily S/R)
Dashed Black (Hourly S/R)
Blue Line (Target S/R)
Pink Line (Gap Target)

Shared Chart
tradingview.com/chart/oOetWWMH/

Weekly Projection
None this week.

If this helps you, like the chart and feel free to follow me. I freely offer intraday SPY commentary. Thanks for taking the time to read. All of this information is my interpretation and shouldn't be taken as trading advice. Good luck out there traders!

Note

out the gate. the pre high and low are the keys

Note

pink line is the gap. bears would like to get there.

Note

of note. vix not terribly down. p/c ratio on spx isnt too unordinary.
but the over all p/c ratio of the market is higher than normal.past weeks its been opening around .9-1.1, today is up at 1.4

Note

bulls holding. gonna retest 337.8

Note

still rocket riding...expect bears to show up around 339.5

Note

watching paint dry.
staying above the black line is more bullish than bearish
but checking the volume out, no big fish have even stepped in yet.
this is all just retail $$

Note

*1000 post*
Slowly creeping.
Relative to the furtures, spy is leading. not very strongly, but still stair stepping up.
bears havent stepped in at all, so bulls will keep walking it up.
may be sitting Sideway at 340 until the futures either catch up, or the tumble and spy follows.

Note

coming up on hour 2 close.
whats bullish? closing above 339.5
bearish? closing under, and not getting above 340.8 in the 3 hour.

Note

seems likely to go higher today. but the market wants as many traders washed out as possible.
p/c is low around 1.2
been sitting around 340 for awhile. people see it getting ready to pop up
2 o clock is coming up.
drop shop to shake out call holders and get put buyers into the game
then a quick recovery with the break out.
no big fish have moved today. but that could be a likely story for today.

Note

the paint is dripping down. looking first for the pre high to get tagged.
if it holds under, they want to get below the pre low.

Note

If the market decided to stop short of fridays close, it would be around 337.5. which is the hourly breakout candle from this morning.

Note

hourly close under the important weekly. bears going on a trip for a little longer. if they manage to get under the pre high and hold a few candles, thell like to go further.

Note

got computers duking it out at this 338.3ish area.
bears need to keep it under 338.75 and try and recap 338.27 to go lower.
bulls get higher, ther should still be a little dip before they try and take back off to the 340 range.

Note

bulls can run sideways here, but getting above 338.75-.8 is key

Note

expecting a slight resistance at 339.5 but not as significant as what just happened
once the bulls close above that, so concludes the shakeout for now.

Note

some bears still out and about. just in case...
bull trouble starts first closing under 338.75, then 338.3
Theyll need to hold price, and stair step slowly to get back to the weekly line or bears come back for 2nd's

Note

got a double tap on 338.3. bulls get one more chance to make distance. next knock and floor opens for bears.

Note

it is the last hour, and things can get weird quick. S/R lines are up and being pinged well.

Midkniteskyz

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