TGR pt.2 - SPY vs. gravity
Updated
This chart uses symmetric trajectories from the early distribution phases to estimate the path price will take to initiate markdown.
Initial target = 506-508. If SPY finds resistance at 516 then the initial target could hit by the end of this week (5/10). If SPY breaks above 516 it should find resistance at 518-520, and then the initial target will be delayed - 506-508 would likely still hit by 5/17 if the latter case is realized.
Goal Target = 492 by 5/13 earliest, 5/23 latest. Could extend lower into the 480s but still need a confirmation signal to establish time to target.
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My Trade(s):
- Entered July 19 SPY 506 puts for 6.85 (underlying price = 515.47)
- Will Add if SPY continues higher (looking to add in the 518-520 range)
- Will Add if SPY closes back below 514.
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This looks doomed, but is there enough residual demand to keep this afloat until June? Or will conjunctions of larger forces pull this further down in May...
It depends on if we break back below 514 - that's all it will take to spur a rapid selloff.
Initial target = 506-508. If SPY finds resistance at 516 then the initial target could hit by the end of this week (5/10). If SPY breaks above 516 it should find resistance at 518-520, and then the initial target will be delayed - 506-508 would likely still hit by 5/17 if the latter case is realized.
Goal Target = 492 by 5/13 earliest, 5/23 latest. Could extend lower into the 480s but still need a confirmation signal to establish time to target.
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My Trade(s):
- Entered July 19 SPY 506 puts for 6.85 (underlying price = 515.47)
- Will Add if SPY continues higher (looking to add in the 518-520 range)
- Will Add if SPY closes back below 514.
================================================================================
This looks doomed, but is there enough residual demand to keep this afloat until June? Or will conjunctions of larger forces pull this further down in May...
It depends on if we break back below 514 - that's all it will take to spur a rapid selloff.
Note
Added 7/19 506 puts for 6.18 (average price 6.52).**Keep in mind this could keep going up through 5/8 but come Thursday sellers will step in.
The way I play things is the more it goes in the opposite direction of my prediction, the bigger I add because I know I'll hit my targets 80% of the time.
Good luck homies.
Note
Might be the last chance to add puts for a discount.Note
If you load new bars you'll see its following my blue path/forecast exactly. Look out below.Note
Major bearish signals showing up - this is about to be epic for bears. Breakdown level is 519.88.SPY can breakdown below 519.88 around 2-3 pm today. If it doesn’t make it by the bell it will gap down tomorrow.
A close below 519.88 will be my signal to make another round of adds for all puts. That will be the biggest add of the positions once we get the confirmation.
I’ll make one final round of adds after SPY tests 506-510 followed by small bounce to form lower high. All July puts, can’t emphasize that enough. Its expensive but will pay off big.
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SPY could still run a couple points higher, but unlikely. Important to get the confirmation noted above before going all in short.
Note
Warned it could still run a couple points higher. But the ending diagonal is nearly complete. Perfect time to add more puts. Dead serious here, this pattern breaks down very explosively. 519.88 still the breakdown level.
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