$SPY market top? 50%+ correction incoming?
Updated
Contrary to what everyone believes is going to happen:
"We're going to see a new ATH by the end of 2024 then we decline after"
"There's no way they're going to let the market fall in an election year"
I think we're about to start a historic correction to retest the lows from covid.
Since October, price action has gone parabolic, and normally when parabolas break we see a large correction.
There's a lot of catalysts that can drive the market lower from here. High rates, other central banks cutting more aggressively than us, policy mistakes, election uncertainty, etc. for those that care about fundamentals.
However, my assessment of the chart is that we're at a market top here and we're going to start our decline lower in the near future.
I think this move is likely to happen in the timeframe that everyone thinks we'll see new highs in (so in the next 6-9 months).
If you're long, I think it's a good idea to hedge here and or set tight stops, because the move down will happen faster than most people think is possible, should it play out.
"We're going to see a new ATH by the end of 2024 then we decline after"
"There's no way they're going to let the market fall in an election year"
I think we're about to start a historic correction to retest the lows from covid.
Since October, price action has gone parabolic, and normally when parabolas break we see a large correction.
There's a lot of catalysts that can drive the market lower from here. High rates, other central banks cutting more aggressively than us, policy mistakes, election uncertainty, etc. for those that care about fundamentals.
However, my assessment of the chart is that we're at a market top here and we're going to start our decline lower in the near future.
I think this move is likely to happen in the timeframe that everyone thinks we'll see new highs in (so in the next 6-9 months).
If you're long, I think it's a good idea to hedge here and or set tight stops, because the move down will happen faster than most people think is possible, should it play out.
Note
Bought:SPY 08/01/2024 520.00 P
SPY 08/16/2024 500.00 P
SPY 09/20/2024 270.00 P
Note
Was a few weeks early on the call and price went above the resistance level on the chart, but now I'm seeing all the signs that we've topped.I think timing will still end up playing out as planned on the chart.
I'm out of all of my stock positions and own only spot
UVXY and puts against indices and individual names. Happy trading over the coming weeks.
Note
$270 coming shortly. Think the entire move plays out by the next fed meeting in September.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.