1. Technical Analysis (Daily & 1-Hour Timeframes)
Daily Chart (Longer Timeframe):
* Trend: SPY remains in an upward channel but is showing signs of exhaustion near the upper trendline.
* Resistance:
* 609–610: This is the upper channel resistance where price may face selling pressure.
* Support:
* 586.15: Immediate support level from previous consolidation.
* 580: A key zone to watch if selling accelerates.
* Indicators:
* MACD: Bearish divergence on the daily, signaling potential weakness.
1-Hour Chart (Shorter Timeframe):
* Trend: SPY is currently pulling back after rejecting a supply zone near 609.
* Resistance:
* 608–609: The major resistance area.
* Support:
* 602: Closest support level.
* 597.28: Critical support aligned with GEX levels.
* MACD: Bearish crossover, suggesting downside momentum in the short term.
2. GEX Analysis
Key GEX Levels:
* CALL Walls (Resistance):
* 606: 2nd CALL Wall, acting as significant resistance.
* 610: 3rd CALL Wall, the upper boundary of price action.
* PUT Walls (Support):
* 604: 2nd PUT Wall – current area of congestion and potential bounce zone.
* 600: Highest negative GEX, providing the strongest support below.
Options Oscillator Insights:
* IVR: 7.3% – Low implied volatility makes options cheap for directional trades.
* PUTs: 47.7% activity signals notable bearish positioning, adding downside risk.
3. Trade Setups
Bearish (Short Bias):
* Entry: Near rejection at 606–609 resistance.
* Target: First target at 602, extended target at 600 PUT support.
* Option Strategy:
* Buy PUT options (604 strike or ATM PUTs).
* Use a Bear Put Spread: Buy 605 PUT, Sell 600 PUT to reduce premium cost.
Bullish (Bounce Play):
* Entry: If SPY holds above 602–604 PUT Wall support with bullish volume confirmation.
* Target: 606–609 CALL resistance.
* Option Strategy:
* Buy CALL options (604 strike, 1-week out).
* Use a Bull Call Spread: Buy 603 CALL, Sell 608 CALL for a cheaper setup.
Directional Bias for This Week:
* SPY leans bearish in the short term if it fails to reclaim 606–609. Watch for a potential drop toward 602–600 PUT support.
* A bullish bounce could occur at 602 if volume confirms support strength.
Short Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and manage your risk before trading.
Daily Chart (Longer Timeframe):
* Trend: SPY remains in an upward channel but is showing signs of exhaustion near the upper trendline.
* Resistance:
* 609–610: This is the upper channel resistance where price may face selling pressure.
* Support:
* 586.15: Immediate support level from previous consolidation.
* 580: A key zone to watch if selling accelerates.
* Indicators:
* MACD: Bearish divergence on the daily, signaling potential weakness.
1-Hour Chart (Shorter Timeframe):
* Trend: SPY is currently pulling back after rejecting a supply zone near 609.
* Resistance:
* 608–609: The major resistance area.
* Support:
* 602: Closest support level.
* 597.28: Critical support aligned with GEX levels.
* MACD: Bearish crossover, suggesting downside momentum in the short term.
2. GEX Analysis
Key GEX Levels:
* CALL Walls (Resistance):
* 606: 2nd CALL Wall, acting as significant resistance.
* 610: 3rd CALL Wall, the upper boundary of price action.
* PUT Walls (Support):
* 604: 2nd PUT Wall – current area of congestion and potential bounce zone.
* 600: Highest negative GEX, providing the strongest support below.
Options Oscillator Insights:
* IVR: 7.3% – Low implied volatility makes options cheap for directional trades.
* PUTs: 47.7% activity signals notable bearish positioning, adding downside risk.
3. Trade Setups
Bearish (Short Bias):
* Entry: Near rejection at 606–609 resistance.
* Target: First target at 602, extended target at 600 PUT support.
* Option Strategy:
* Buy PUT options (604 strike or ATM PUTs).
* Use a Bear Put Spread: Buy 605 PUT, Sell 600 PUT to reduce premium cost.
Bullish (Bounce Play):
* Entry: If SPY holds above 602–604 PUT Wall support with bullish volume confirmation.
* Target: 606–609 CALL resistance.
* Option Strategy:
* Buy CALL options (604 strike, 1-week out).
* Use a Bull Call Spread: Buy 603 CALL, Sell 608 CALL for a cheaper setup.
Directional Bias for This Week:
* SPY leans bearish in the short term if it fails to reclaim 606–609. Watch for a potential drop toward 602–600 PUT support.
* A bullish bounce could occur at 602 if volume confirms support strength.
Short Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and manage your risk before trading.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.