SPY Market Analysis - 14/3/2025

The bears got a tight bear channel down which means persistent selling.
The current leg down is in the form of a 9-bar bear microchannel. There could be sellers above the first pullback.
The selling pressure has been stronger (big bear bars, consecutive bear bars) as compared with the weaker buying pressure (bull bars with no follow-through buying).
The bears want a measured move to around 5400 in the SPX which is just 100 points away fro yesterday's low.
If the market trades higher, the bears expect at least a small second leg sideways to down to retest the current leg low (Mar 13).
The bulls see the move down as climactic.
They hope to get a reversal from a parabolic wedge.
The problem with the bull's case is that the bull bars have no sustained follow-through buying.
They need to create consecutive bull bars trading near their high to convince traders that they are back on control.
The move down has been strong. The market remain Always In Short.
If there is a pullback, odds favor a second leg sideways to down to retest the current leg extreme low (Mar 13).
There could be sellers above the first pullback from the 9-bar bear microchannel.
For now, traders will see if the weekly candlestick will close with a long tail below (like the last 2 weeks).
Or will the market retest yesterday's low and close the week near its low instead?

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