The Archegos Gap
Hard rejection from what I call the Archegos Gap.
The Archegos gap is a gap up created in SPY during a rally after the infamous HF collapsed and the FEDs RRP which is still climbing to historic levels.
The gap was finally closed in May, only to open a gap down in June that was just barely filled last Friday before selling off to where we are now.
I had a bullish outlook for tech earnings this month until I realized the indexes are doing the exact same song and dance this quarter as it did in April.
That is to say, a strong market rally off the FED pivot prior to the big ERs.
The FED is desperate to lower inflation which touched even higher during the last CPI print.
Hiring freezes are turning into cuts. SHOP is laying off 10% of its workforce today.
I should have seen it coming because I applied for a position at SHOP a few weeks ago and didn’t even get a callback.
What internet company in their right mind would turn up a chance for an internet engineer with 25 years experience amiright?
I was really hoping 362 was the bottom on SPY, but my sense is there is still more pain to come.
Just don’t expect it to be a straight line down.
Everyone is just starting to fall back on credit.
When you start to see households capitulating and selling their trailers, yachts and over paid homes and used cars is when we can start talking about the bottom being in.
My only open position right now is an OTM short position on SPY@320 for Jan23.
The Archegos gap is a gap up created in SPY during a rally after the infamous HF collapsed and the FEDs RRP which is still climbing to historic levels.
The gap was finally closed in May, only to open a gap down in June that was just barely filled last Friday before selling off to where we are now.
I had a bullish outlook for tech earnings this month until I realized the indexes are doing the exact same song and dance this quarter as it did in April.
That is to say, a strong market rally off the FED pivot prior to the big ERs.
The FED is desperate to lower inflation which touched even higher during the last CPI print.
Hiring freezes are turning into cuts. SHOP is laying off 10% of its workforce today.
I should have seen it coming because I applied for a position at SHOP a few weeks ago and didn’t even get a callback.
What internet company in their right mind would turn up a chance for an internet engineer with 25 years experience amiright?
I was really hoping 362 was the bottom on SPY, but my sense is there is still more pain to come.
Just don’t expect it to be a straight line down.
Everyone is just starting to fall back on credit.
When you start to see households capitulating and selling their trailers, yachts and over paid homes and used cars is when we can start talking about the bottom being in.
My only open position right now is an OTM short position on SPY@320 for Jan23.
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