Raging Bull
Updated
Hey guys! Let's get right into it today. So yesterday the bulls successfully broke through 9 year resistance (well done to the bulls), and as we kick-off the final month of trade in what has turned out to be a year for the history books, the bulls will be looking to take full advantage of the (obvious) death of price discovery, and the bear (RIP). The current Put-to-Call ratio proves bears are extinct, with the lowest print I've ever seen my career (0.34 today). By contrast, the next lowest print was in Oct 2007, when we saw 0.42. Seemingly everyone, (except me) has been squeezed out of their shorts, and hedges. Those still holding cash are slowly but surely watching their purchasing power diminish, with the nuclear levels of fiat debasement we're witnessing on a daily basis. Bitcoin and Gold alike show the inflation carnage quite well, as they hover near all-time highs once again.
The US majors were up an astonishing 10 - 12% in November alone, (this used to be a solid annual return), and all that off the back of hope, according to the financial media. It's becoming clear that in a market relentlessly beaten beyond recognition, that only the FED and hope matter. Personally, I'm focusing on increasing my income, continuing to utilize excess cash on hand for hedging purposes, and shorting overvalued indexes such as the Nasdaq. I simply refuse to eat the sh*t they keep trying to feed us each day, and if I have to sit on the sidelines until we see proper functioning markets and price discovery again, that's a better solution imo.
ISM Manufacturing came in weaker than expected this morning at 57.5% vs 58% exp. Construction spending rose slightly with a print of 1.3% vs expectations of 0.7%. The 10Y yield is still hovering around 0.9%, with the recent breakout smothered by (timely) demand. The Vix continues to get hammered, and we saw a sub 20's print on Friday, for the first time since mid February. Well done to the FED. The message to investors is clear: Don't you dare attempt to manage risk by shorting or hedging. Just sleep...
Thanks for your time today guys. If you enjoyed today's analysis, please hit the Like button and subscribe to our profile. The information and analysis shared in this post is not financial advice. Always conduct your own analysis and research. Cheers, Michael.
The US majors were up an astonishing 10 - 12% in November alone, (this used to be a solid annual return), and all that off the back of hope, according to the financial media. It's becoming clear that in a market relentlessly beaten beyond recognition, that only the FED and hope matter. Personally, I'm focusing on increasing my income, continuing to utilize excess cash on hand for hedging purposes, and shorting overvalued indexes such as the Nasdaq. I simply refuse to eat the sh*t they keep trying to feed us each day, and if I have to sit on the sidelines until we see proper functioning markets and price discovery again, that's a better solution imo.
ISM Manufacturing came in weaker than expected this morning at 57.5% vs 58% exp. Construction spending rose slightly with a print of 1.3% vs expectations of 0.7%. The 10Y yield is still hovering around 0.9%, with the recent breakout smothered by (timely) demand. The Vix continues to get hammered, and we saw a sub 20's print on Friday, for the first time since mid February. Well done to the FED. The message to investors is clear: Don't you dare attempt to manage risk by shorting or hedging. Just sleep...
Thanks for your time today guys. If you enjoyed today's analysis, please hit the Like button and subscribe to our profile. The information and analysis shared in this post is not financial advice. Always conduct your own analysis and research. Cheers, Michael.
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View from the hourly as we hover above both the ascending trendlne from the March crash, and the megaphone trendline. I imagine this is what life on the moon feels like...Note
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Vix crashed 50% in the month of November. Holy sh*t...Note
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Seeing some weakness on the SPY mid-morning, but we have a long way to go to fill the overnight gap around 362. With Jobless Claims out Thursday, followed by November Payrolls on Friday, I suspect we may see a choppy week (imo the weekly high is in at 367), then a massive sell-off to end the week, off the back of a third weekly spike in claims, and an ugly payrolls print. The question I keep asking myself is; where else could we possibly go from here, but down?Note
Look at that gap:Note
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Bonds appear to be on the verge of some heavy selling, with the 10Y yield set to explode above 1% imminently:Note
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Here's a good look (below) at the Put-to-Call ratio we discussed earlier. You may notice we've bounced considerably from the morning's low's of 0.34. The complacency is simply astonishing.Note
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SPY is racing back toward the HOD around 367.22. What's stopping the bulls from capturing a new high? Certainly not supply.Note
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SPY just hit a new HOD and all-time high at 367.68. The bulls want more...Note
10Y yield is up over 11% from the overnight low's. Yikes...Note
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Hourly RSI (above) is sitting near 82, showing extremely overbought levels. Let's see if this is enough to spook bond investors. Maybe they'll come pay PE's of 100 in the stock market (like AMZN), instead of accepting a ZIRPish return in the "risk free" zone...Note
Most of the gains from the open have now been erased, and it seems power hour is off to a rough start. SPY is trying to find some support at the top of the ascending trendline support (around 366), and so far it's holding up. If this breaks, that gap fill at 362 could come into play...Note
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3 minutes to the close, let's see if bulls hold the line...Note
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That's all folks! The bulls held the ascending trendline support into the close, and it was another celebratory day as they captured new all-time high's for the millionth time this year. Vix caught a notable bid off the morning's lows to end the day just below a 21 handle. Rates are roaring higher with the 10Y yield up 10% from the overnight low's, and crypto and gold, despite minor intraday noise, are also roaring higher as fiat becomes monopoly money. I look forward to seeing you guys tomorrow for another anti-gravity moonwalk in Fedland. I really appreciate all the support, and I hope you guys enjoyed today's analysis. Cheers, Michael.
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