🔥 🚨
Market Structure Insight SPY is currently in a sharp descending channel, respecting both the upper and lower trendlines. After a clean Break of Structure (BOS) at 546.97 and a failed CHoCH attempt, the price accelerated downward and is now hovering just above a key psychological round level near $500.
The most recent BOS confirms a bearish continuation, but the current price is sitting at the bottom of the channel, where a short-term bounce may occur if momentum slows down. We're in the discount zone—a key area Smart Money often targets for reversals.
Smart Money & Technical Zones
* Resistance zone: $546.97 (last BOS area)
* Support zone: $502.19 (recent swing low)
* Channel bounds: Top near $550–560, Bottom near $500
MACD is starting to curve upward while Stoch RSI is lifting from the oversold zone — potential signs of a short-term relief rally. However, there’s no CHoCH yet to confirm a structural reversal.
GEX & Options Sentiment Breakdown
* IV Rank: 121.8 → Elevated implied volatility, prime for option premium selling.
* IVx avg: 53.1 → Still rising, shows fear entering the market.
* PUTS Dominate: 84.7% of options flow are puts.
* GEX Bias: Strong negative gamma exposure, indicating dealer selling accelerates downside moves.
* Key Support Walls:
* $520: Highest negative NETGEX / Put Support.
* $500: Second Put Wall with -76.41% pressure.
* Resistance Walls:
* $547: HVL and minor call resistance.
* $560: 3rd CALL Wall, minimal resistance at 1.26%.
Dealers are heavily short gamma, suggesting large directional swings and continued volatility.
Trade Setups Scenario 1 – Dead Cat Bounce (Bullish Relief Rally)
* Entry: Above $510 with confirmation of strong volume or CHoCH.
* Target 1: $520 (first structural test).
* Target 2: $546–$551 HVL rejection zone.
* Stop Loss: Below $502
Scenario 2 – Bearish Continuation
* Entry: Rejection at $510–$520 zone or breakdown of $502
* Target 1: $495 psychological level
* Target 2: $485–$475 (overshoot flush level)
* Stop Loss: Above $522
Investor Strategy Insight Long-term investors should remain cautious until SPY shows structural strength above $546. Until then, dollar-cost-averaging with tight capital allocation could be safer. This environment favors option sellers due to elevated IV, or high-conviction intraday scalping on well-defined levels.
Outlook & Mindset This week is dominated by uncertainty—rising global tariffs, geopolitical risk, and credit tightening all weigh on risk-on sentiment. SPY may enter a volatile range-bound phase between $500–$550, until new macro data shifts sentiment.
If you’re trading SPY this week, don’t try to catch the knife. Wait for confirmation candles or volume shifts, and be nimble with risk.
Disclaimer This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk responsibly.
Market Structure Insight SPY is currently in a sharp descending channel, respecting both the upper and lower trendlines. After a clean Break of Structure (BOS) at 546.97 and a failed CHoCH attempt, the price accelerated downward and is now hovering just above a key psychological round level near $500.
The most recent BOS confirms a bearish continuation, but the current price is sitting at the bottom of the channel, where a short-term bounce may occur if momentum slows down. We're in the discount zone—a key area Smart Money often targets for reversals.
Smart Money & Technical Zones
* Resistance zone: $546.97 (last BOS area)
* Support zone: $502.19 (recent swing low)
* Channel bounds: Top near $550–560, Bottom near $500
MACD is starting to curve upward while Stoch RSI is lifting from the oversold zone — potential signs of a short-term relief rally. However, there’s no CHoCH yet to confirm a structural reversal.
GEX & Options Sentiment Breakdown
* IV Rank: 121.8 → Elevated implied volatility, prime for option premium selling.
* IVx avg: 53.1 → Still rising, shows fear entering the market.
* PUTS Dominate: 84.7% of options flow are puts.
* GEX Bias: Strong negative gamma exposure, indicating dealer selling accelerates downside moves.
* Key Support Walls:
* $520: Highest negative NETGEX / Put Support.
* $500: Second Put Wall with -76.41% pressure.
* Resistance Walls:
* $547: HVL and minor call resistance.
* $560: 3rd CALL Wall, minimal resistance at 1.26%.
Dealers are heavily short gamma, suggesting large directional swings and continued volatility.
Trade Setups Scenario 1 – Dead Cat Bounce (Bullish Relief Rally)
* Entry: Above $510 with confirmation of strong volume or CHoCH.
* Target 1: $520 (first structural test).
* Target 2: $546–$551 HVL rejection zone.
* Stop Loss: Below $502
Scenario 2 – Bearish Continuation
* Entry: Rejection at $510–$520 zone or breakdown of $502
* Target 1: $495 psychological level
* Target 2: $485–$475 (overshoot flush level)
* Stop Loss: Above $522
Investor Strategy Insight Long-term investors should remain cautious until SPY shows structural strength above $546. Until then, dollar-cost-averaging with tight capital allocation could be safer. This environment favors option sellers due to elevated IV, or high-conviction intraday scalping on well-defined levels.
Outlook & Mindset This week is dominated by uncertainty—rising global tariffs, geopolitical risk, and credit tightening all weigh on risk-on sentiment. SPY may enter a volatile range-bound phase between $500–$550, until new macro data shifts sentiment.
If you’re trading SPY this week, don’t try to catch the knife. Wait for confirmation candles or volume shifts, and be nimble with risk.
Disclaimer This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk responsibly.
Trade active
🎯 SPY Intraday Scalp Game Plan🔍 Context Summary
Market is in a clear bearish structure with some CHoCH forming near 505.50.
Gamma & options data suggest heavy resistance at 512–514 and magnet zone at 490–492.
We are currently inside a premium trap zone — patience and sniper entry are key.
🔴 Bearish Scenario (Preferred Bias)
📍 Entry: If SPY fails at 505.50–506.00 with rejection wick or CHoCH confirmation
🎯 Target 1: 500
🎯 Target 2: 495
🎯 Final Magnet: 492 (strong GEX pull)
❌ Stop Loss: Above 507.50 (structure break and invalidation)
💡 Optional Play: 502P, 500P, or Put Spreads (same-week)
🟢 Bullish Bounce Setup (If Trap Flip)
📍 Entry: Break and retest above 506.50 with strong volume
🎯 Target 1: 510
🎯 Target 2: 512–514 (exit early here due to call wall & HVL)
❌ Stop Loss: Below 504
⚠️ High risk due to broader bearish sentiment. Only scalp momentum.
🔑 Tips for Scalping Today
Volume & velocity will be key — don’t hold in chop.
MACD & Stoch RSI crossover + liquidity sweep confirmation for added confluence.
Avoid chasing candles near HVL or GEX walls — wait for rejection and reaction.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.