How Will Uncle Sam Strike Back? – U.S. Treasuries on the Edge
📉 How Will Uncle Sam Strike Back? – U.S. Treasuries on the Edge
After covering leveraged loans (BKLN), junk bonds (HYG), and investment-grade corporates (LQD), we now focus on the most important piece of the U.S. credit puzzle: Treasuries.
Specifically, the long end of the curve — tracked by TLT.
📊 What the Chart Shows
Left Panel (3D Chart)
• All-time highs in Feb 2020 at $179.80
• Long-term trendline going back to 2004
• Critical support was broken in 2022 — a structural breakdown
Right Panel (8H Chart)
• Clear descending channel since 2020
• Price has rejected from the channel top multiple times
• Recent bounces off the lower channel suggest a potential final flush
🧠 What Happened in 2022? (can't blame Trump for that...)
This wasn’t politics — it was policy.
• The Fed's fastest hiking cycle in decades
• Liquidity evaporated
• Long-duration bonds were abandoned
• The key trendline that had held for years was finally lost
That line — once support — is now resistance.
📐 My Technical Expectation
I expect one final slide before a reversal.
• Channel base sits at ~$76.32
• My projection targets $71.30 or even $68
• That would mark new all-time lows for TLT
🟡 After that? I expect a macro reversal, targeting:
• 🔼 $101 – mid-channel reversion
• 🔼 $112–115 – former support zone (2019–2022), now resistance
🔍 Macro Context
This chart isn’t just about price.
It reflects how markets are pricing confidence in U.S. debt.
And right now?
That confidence is shaky. With Trump turning 'orange' and taking it out against almost everyone else: China but also his allies(EU, Canada, Japan, etc )
🔄 Recap of the Series So Far:
• BKLN – record leveraged loan outflows
• HYG – junk bonds bounced at historical support
• LQD – investment grade bonds holding steady
• TLT – U.S. Treasuries under pressure, and possibly breaking down
📌 Next up?
🟧 CRYPTOCAP:BTC
Because when the world begins to question Treasuries, the search for alternative stores of value begins.
One Love,
The FXPROFESSOR 💙
ps. wait for the next posts...they might be epic!
After covering leveraged loans (BKLN), junk bonds (HYG), and investment-grade corporates (LQD), we now focus on the most important piece of the U.S. credit puzzle: Treasuries.
Specifically, the long end of the curve — tracked by TLT.
📊 What the Chart Shows
Left Panel (3D Chart)
• All-time highs in Feb 2020 at $179.80
• Long-term trendline going back to 2004
• Critical support was broken in 2022 — a structural breakdown
Right Panel (8H Chart)
• Clear descending channel since 2020
• Price has rejected from the channel top multiple times
• Recent bounces off the lower channel suggest a potential final flush
🧠 What Happened in 2022? (can't blame Trump for that...)
This wasn’t politics — it was policy.
• The Fed's fastest hiking cycle in decades
• Liquidity evaporated
• Long-duration bonds were abandoned
• The key trendline that had held for years was finally lost
That line — once support — is now resistance.
📐 My Technical Expectation
I expect one final slide before a reversal.
• Channel base sits at ~$76.32
• My projection targets $71.30 or even $68
• That would mark new all-time lows for TLT
🟡 After that? I expect a macro reversal, targeting:
• 🔼 $101 – mid-channel reversion
• 🔼 $112–115 – former support zone (2019–2022), now resistance
🔍 Macro Context
This chart isn’t just about price.
It reflects how markets are pricing confidence in U.S. debt.
And right now?
That confidence is shaky. With Trump turning 'orange' and taking it out against almost everyone else: China but also his allies(EU, Canada, Japan, etc )
🔄 Recap of the Series So Far:
• BKLN – record leveraged loan outflows
• HYG – junk bonds bounced at historical support
• LQD – investment grade bonds holding steady
• TLT – U.S. Treasuries under pressure, and possibly breaking down
📌 Next up?
🟧 CRYPTOCAP:BTC
Because when the world begins to question Treasuries, the search for alternative stores of value begins.
One Love,
The FXPROFESSOR 💙
ps. wait for the next posts...they might be epic!
Trade active
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cryptogpt.io/
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💬 t.me/fxprofessor88
🌍🚀 CryptoGPT Trading Agent is the Future:
cryptogpt.io/
💹 Join My Forex Community:
fxprofessor.com/forex-special
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
📣 Professor's Public Telegram:
💬 t.me/fxprofessor88
🌍🚀 CryptoGPT Trading Agent is the Future:
cryptogpt.io/
💹 Join My Forex Community:
fxprofessor.com/forex-special
💬 t.me/fxprofessor88
🌍🚀 CryptoGPT Trading Agent is the Future:
cryptogpt.io/
💹 Join My Forex Community:
fxprofessor.com/forex-special
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.