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TNYA) TLDR; Heart disease is bad. Big money is long $TNYA. "Buy low, sell high".
Cardiovascular disease kills more people every year than cancer and Tenaya Therapeutics is working on a pipeline of new treatments (primarily gene therapies) for various heart conditions. They have several clinical trials underway, and of their various trials, all the data has come back showing positive results thus far.
As a pre-revenue biotech company, this is certainly a high-risk/high-reward play, but the management team has been successful in their efforts to reduce spending without negatively impacting their clinical research, resulting in the company consistently beating on earnings estimates quarter after quarter, and "Big Money" appears to be overwhelmingly longTNYA (dyor, see the recent $24.9 million purchase by insider David Goeddel's fund at $0.70/share and a current 80-90% institutional ownership of shares).
All this leads me to believe that the drop in share price over the last two quarters was unrelated to any perceived prospects/merits of Tenaya's work, and more likely the result of one (or a few) larger long-time shareholders (potentially, institutional IPO-entrants) unwilling to wait any longer for their investment to pay off and finally capitulated their drastically underwater positions from the early 2020s (which was then further exasperated by opportunistic short-selling and offsides retail longs that also chose to cut their losses shortly after).
In short, I think the drastic decline was unwarranted, and thus a drastic repricing/"reversion" (read: "BIG green candles") seems like the most logical path forward and the "Big W" setup is looking strong as of Friday's close (4/11/2025).
As long as the current support zone continues to hold, a clean break above $0.75 will signal a confirmation of reversal to traders and should ultimately result in bullish continuation to T1, A1, A2, and eventually T2/A3 and beyond if the company continues to deliver.
📈🥂
-KP
TNYA) TLDR; Heart disease is bad. Big money is long $TNYA. "Buy low, sell high".Cardiovascular disease kills more people every year than cancer and Tenaya Therapeutics is working on a pipeline of new treatments (primarily gene therapies) for various heart conditions. They have several clinical trials underway, and of their various trials, all the data has come back showing positive results thus far.
As a pre-revenue biotech company, this is certainly a high-risk/high-reward play, but the management team has been successful in their efforts to reduce spending without negatively impacting their clinical research, resulting in the company consistently beating on earnings estimates quarter after quarter, and "Big Money" appears to be overwhelmingly long
TNYA (dyor, see the recent $24.9 million purchase by insider David Goeddel's fund at $0.70/share and a current 80-90% institutional ownership of shares).All this leads me to believe that the drop in share price over the last two quarters was unrelated to any perceived prospects/merits of Tenaya's work, and more likely the result of one (or a few) larger long-time shareholders (potentially, institutional IPO-entrants) unwilling to wait any longer for their investment to pay off and finally capitulated their drastically underwater positions from the early 2020s (which was then further exasperated by opportunistic short-selling and offsides retail longs that also chose to cut their losses shortly after).
In short, I think the drastic decline was unwarranted, and thus a drastic repricing/"reversion" (read: "BIG green candles") seems like the most logical path forward and the "Big W" setup is looking strong as of Friday's close (4/11/2025).
As long as the current support zone continues to hold, a clean break above $0.75 will signal a confirmation of reversal to traders and should ultimately result in bullish continuation to T1, A1, A2, and eventually T2/A3 and beyond if the company continues to deliver.
📈🥂
-KP
Trade active
Double bottom technical setup invalidated, while my fundamental long thesis was further strengthened with yesterday's news release (more positive trial data/presentations). Current PA hints at the potential formation of a descending triangle (if $0.36 support holds*) or falling wedge if we see another leg down to ~$0.333. The bottom is near, if not already in.***
BULLISH
Note
Investor sentiment is understandably low after the past ~4 months of consolidation at all time lows, with no significant catalysts to recapture traders' attention while other corners of the market have been so rife with opportunity.The setup for a violent move upward is still on the table, in my opinion, but without a significant progress update from management soon, I would expect TNYA to continue to consolidate in the ~$0.30-$0.75 range for the foreseeable future/until something changes.
Note
$0.94 Daily Gap filled on no news, but need more RIZZZZ (read: *buy volume*) for any sort of continuation from here...Otherwise, I'd expect that she just chops around in this new little range until someone decides to short the relatively thin book back down to the previous range in the absence of a positive PR from mgmt... 🫣
Note
If prior resistance of $0.75 holds as a new support, could also just slowly grind higher in anticipation of a positive PR/update about ongoing trials sometime in H2 📈GLHF! 🥂
-KP
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.