Combined Macro Charts For You!
I'm a big fan of exotic charts. It is often tough to gauge the current markets by looking at individual charts so sometimes I like to combine them together. Here is a rough rationale of this chart:
TOTAL
Crypto Total seems to have a good representation small cap behavior and is often a leading indicator of the broader risk-on market.
S&P
Large caps, historically it's a trailing indicator, but doesn't have such a long tail as Treasury Yields.
1/DXY
Relatively good indicator of impedance changes. If I'm going to convert my dollars to something else, and then back again, it represents relatively how efficient the economic circuit is. More volatility = conflicting expectations by the market. It is sometimes inversely correlated with risk assets but not always.
US02Y/US10Y
Inverted 10Y/02Y. How are investors feeling about the short-term economy vs long-term? When this symbol experiences large downward volatility, the relative health of debt in the economy is unveiled and investors flee risk-on assets.
I weighted each of these symbols 25% by using the 3 Year MA:
...........................3Y.MA......................factor
TOTAL................1049933961759.....1
ES1!..................3723.74..................281956839
1/DXY...............0.010448................100491382251052
US02Y/US10Y..0.4784....................2194678013710
(sorry about all the dots, I had to use it to make it line up)
Here is the resulting symbol:
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL+1/TVC:DXY*100491382251052+CME_MINI:ES1!*281956839+US02Y/US10Y*2194678013710
Normalized to 100:
(CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL+1/TVC:DXY*100491382251052+CME_MINI:ES1!*281956839+US02Y/US10Y*2194678013710)/67060000000
Here is the index without Treasury Yields, so each remaining symbol is now 33% of the chart:
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL+1/TVC:DXY*100491382251052+CME_MINI:ES1!*281956839
Normalized to 100:
(CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL+1/TVC:DXY*100491382251052+CME_MINI:ES1!*281956839)/53870000000
Here is the chart, normalized to 100 along with some rough expectations:
I hope that this is somehow useful. The overall conclusion here seems to indicate the macro environment is currently not friendly at all.
Thanks for taking a look and I hope you enjoyed this idea. Hopefully it makes sense and I don't believe there are any major mistakes. If you spot a mistake, or have an exotic chart of your own you would like to share, please let me know!
Good luck and don't forget to hedge your bets. Take care and be safe.
- your fringe chartist
TOTAL
Crypto Total seems to have a good representation small cap behavior and is often a leading indicator of the broader risk-on market.
S&P
Large caps, historically it's a trailing indicator, but doesn't have such a long tail as Treasury Yields.
1/DXY
Relatively good indicator of impedance changes. If I'm going to convert my dollars to something else, and then back again, it represents relatively how efficient the economic circuit is. More volatility = conflicting expectations by the market. It is sometimes inversely correlated with risk assets but not always.
US02Y/US10Y
Inverted 10Y/02Y. How are investors feeling about the short-term economy vs long-term? When this symbol experiences large downward volatility, the relative health of debt in the economy is unveiled and investors flee risk-on assets.
I weighted each of these symbols 25% by using the 3 Year MA:
...........................3Y.MA......................factor
TOTAL................1049933961759.....1
ES1!..................3723.74..................281956839
1/DXY...............0.010448................100491382251052
US02Y/US10Y..0.4784....................2194678013710
(sorry about all the dots, I had to use it to make it line up)
Here is the resulting symbol:
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL+1/TVC:DXY*100491382251052+CME_MINI:ES1!*281956839+US02Y/US10Y*2194678013710
Normalized to 100:
(CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL+1/TVC:DXY*100491382251052+CME_MINI:ES1!*281956839+US02Y/US10Y*2194678013710)/67060000000
Here is the index without Treasury Yields, so each remaining symbol is now 33% of the chart:
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL+1/TVC:DXY*100491382251052+CME_MINI:ES1!*281956839
Normalized to 100:
(CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL+1/TVC:DXY*100491382251052+CME_MINI:ES1!*281956839)/53870000000
Here is the chart, normalized to 100 along with some rough expectations:
I hope that this is somehow useful. The overall conclusion here seems to indicate the macro environment is currently not friendly at all.
Thanks for taking a look and I hope you enjoyed this idea. Hopefully it makes sense and I don't believe there are any major mistakes. If you spot a mistake, or have an exotic chart of your own you would like to share, please let me know!
Good luck and don't forget to hedge your bets. Take care and be safe.
- your fringe chartist
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