MARKETS week ahead: October 2 – 8
Last week in the news
“Higher for longer” continued to shape investors sentiment, ending September in losses. During the last trading week of the month, equity markets both in the EU and the US continued with correction, while US Treasury yields continued to be elevated, reaching higher levels from the 2008 financial crisis. The S&P 500 finished the month some 4.7% lower. The crypto market gained some 2.4% on a weekly basis, but still with fragile strength to sustain higher grounds.
Although the general sentiment on financial markets is pretty negative during the last period, the investors are continuing to closely monitor inflation developments, anticipating the next Fed`s move. During the previous week, the Fed`s favorite inflation indicator was published, posting the core personal consumption expenditures price index to 0.1% in August, lower from market expectation of 0.2%. At the same time, core PCE on a yearly basis was down to 3.9% in August from 4.3% posted for July. This was a small positive sign for market participants that inflation is indeed slowing down and that measures imposed by the Fed in the previous period are giving the results. Based on the latest report, markets are currently giving only 15% probability for a potential rate increase at November`s FOMC meeting.
In line with the US inflation gauges, inflation in the Euro Area also seems to slow down. As per published data, the inflation in the EU fell to the level of 4.3% on a yearly basis in September, although the markets were expecting to see the figure of 4.5%. Although core inflation reached 4.5% y/y, it was still a significant drop from 5.3% posted for August. August inflation figures are at its lowest levels since October 2021. Based on the latest ECB projections it could be expected for inflation to fall down to 3.2% next year, and finally reach targeted 2% in 2025. The ECB is also following Fed`s rhetoric of “higher for longer” interest rates.
JPMorgan Chase decided to block their crypto-related operations in the U.K. over concerns on the “rise in frauds” related to the crypto assets. Coinbase CEO, Brian Armstrong criticized such action of JPMorgan and other banks which took the same course in the UK when it comes to their crypto related businesses, strongly disagreeing with a decision to de-platform the whole crypto industry. Instead, he is noting that regulators should be the ones to make a decision on what is allowed and what is not on the market, and not banks.
Ripple announced that the company is discontinuing its initial intention to purchase a chartered trust company Fortress Trust, based in Nevada. As announced at the company, Ripple will continue to be an investor in this company. Although there has not been officially noted the reason for such a decision, the market speculates that it might be due to the recent theft occurred at Fortress Trust, totalling around $15 million, due to “unnamed third-party vendor, that had fallen victim to a phishing attack”, as Coindesk reported.
Crypto market cap
Markets are continuing to digest the “higher for longer” rhetoric from FED during its September`s monetary meeting. Investors continue to be focused on inflation figures in a hope that the Fed will skip further rate hikes for this year. As per current CME questionnaire, market has lowered expectations for another rate hike at November's FOMC meeting, but still, surprises by Fed officials are possible, especially after Fed Chair Powell`s announcement that there will be yet another rate hike till the end of this year. After that, the US interest rates will continue to be elevated through the course of the next year. But even with these elevated interest rates, the Fed is not expecting to reach its 2% inflation target until year 2025. It seems that monetary authorities are ready to accept generally changed global economic circumstances where increased inflation becomes a part of the economic reality. Although US equities and Treasuries lost in value during the previous week, the crypto market gained from investors' slowly emerging appetite for riskier assets in anticipation of higher returns for this year. Total crypto market capitalization has increased by 2.3% during the week, adding total 24B to its market cap. Daily trading volumes were modestly increased to 56B on a daily basis, from
33B traded a week before. Total crypto market capitalization increase since the beginning of this year reached a level of 40%, where it has added a total 302B to the market cap.
It was a generally positive week for crypto coins, where the majority of them gained in value. BTC and ETH were major coins with highest participation in total crypto market cap increase during the previous week. BTC gained 8.8B on a weekly basis or 1.70%. The winner of the week was ETH, with a gain of 10.8B or 5.65% increase within a single week. BNB could also be mentioned as a significant gainer in nominal terms, as this coin managed to add 0.85B to its total value, which represents a 2.6% increase for this coin. There have been several coins with solid gains in relative terms, like Maker with a surge in value of 18.4%, LINK was up by 15.8%, Bitcoin Cash was up by 13.3%, OMG Network gained 12.7% w/w. There have been only a few losers during the week, with relatively smaller drop in price like NEO, with a drop in value of almost 2%, Stellar was down by 1% while Polkadot lost 1.75% on a weekly basis. There has been modest movements in circulating coins for several currencies, where Polkadot lost 3.8% of its coins in circulation while Filecoin added 0.4% new coins.
Crypto futures market
The crypto futures market was holding a positive sentiment during the previous week. Both BTC and ETH futures were traded at higher grounds from the end of the previous week. BTC short term futures were traded some 1.5% higher from the week before, and in line with developments on the spot market. Futures maturing in December this year ended the week at price $27.290 or 0.7% higher, while December 2024 managed to return to the levels above 30K as of the end of the previous week.
ETH short term futures were traded around 4.6% higher on a weekly basis, but still lower from the spot market. December this year ended the week at a price $1.691 or 4.9% higher from the end of the previous week. At the same time, longer term futures prices were increased by more than 4%, with December 2024 ending the week at price $1.791. Regardless of the developments on the spot market, investors are still holding precaution when ETH future prices are in question.
“Higher for longer” continued to shape investors sentiment, ending September in losses. During the last trading week of the month, equity markets both in the EU and the US continued with correction, while US Treasury yields continued to be elevated, reaching higher levels from the 2008 financial crisis. The S&P 500 finished the month some 4.7% lower. The crypto market gained some 2.4% on a weekly basis, but still with fragile strength to sustain higher grounds.
Although the general sentiment on financial markets is pretty negative during the last period, the investors are continuing to closely monitor inflation developments, anticipating the next Fed`s move. During the previous week, the Fed`s favorite inflation indicator was published, posting the core personal consumption expenditures price index to 0.1% in August, lower from market expectation of 0.2%. At the same time, core PCE on a yearly basis was down to 3.9% in August from 4.3% posted for July. This was a small positive sign for market participants that inflation is indeed slowing down and that measures imposed by the Fed in the previous period are giving the results. Based on the latest report, markets are currently giving only 15% probability for a potential rate increase at November`s FOMC meeting.
In line with the US inflation gauges, inflation in the Euro Area also seems to slow down. As per published data, the inflation in the EU fell to the level of 4.3% on a yearly basis in September, although the markets were expecting to see the figure of 4.5%. Although core inflation reached 4.5% y/y, it was still a significant drop from 5.3% posted for August. August inflation figures are at its lowest levels since October 2021. Based on the latest ECB projections it could be expected for inflation to fall down to 3.2% next year, and finally reach targeted 2% in 2025. The ECB is also following Fed`s rhetoric of “higher for longer” interest rates.
JPMorgan Chase decided to block their crypto-related operations in the U.K. over concerns on the “rise in frauds” related to the crypto assets. Coinbase CEO, Brian Armstrong criticized such action of JPMorgan and other banks which took the same course in the UK when it comes to their crypto related businesses, strongly disagreeing with a decision to de-platform the whole crypto industry. Instead, he is noting that regulators should be the ones to make a decision on what is allowed and what is not on the market, and not banks.
Ripple announced that the company is discontinuing its initial intention to purchase a chartered trust company Fortress Trust, based in Nevada. As announced at the company, Ripple will continue to be an investor in this company. Although there has not been officially noted the reason for such a decision, the market speculates that it might be due to the recent theft occurred at Fortress Trust, totalling around $15 million, due to “unnamed third-party vendor, that had fallen victim to a phishing attack”, as Coindesk reported.
Crypto market cap
Markets are continuing to digest the “higher for longer” rhetoric from FED during its September`s monetary meeting. Investors continue to be focused on inflation figures in a hope that the Fed will skip further rate hikes for this year. As per current CME questionnaire, market has lowered expectations for another rate hike at November's FOMC meeting, but still, surprises by Fed officials are possible, especially after Fed Chair Powell`s announcement that there will be yet another rate hike till the end of this year. After that, the US interest rates will continue to be elevated through the course of the next year. But even with these elevated interest rates, the Fed is not expecting to reach its 2% inflation target until year 2025. It seems that monetary authorities are ready to accept generally changed global economic circumstances where increased inflation becomes a part of the economic reality. Although US equities and Treasuries lost in value during the previous week, the crypto market gained from investors' slowly emerging appetite for riskier assets in anticipation of higher returns for this year. Total crypto market capitalization has increased by 2.3% during the week, adding total 24B to its market cap. Daily trading volumes were modestly increased to 56B on a daily basis, from
33B traded a week before. Total crypto market capitalization increase since the beginning of this year reached a level of 40%, where it has added a total 302B to the market cap.It was a generally positive week for crypto coins, where the majority of them gained in value. BTC and ETH were major coins with highest participation in total crypto market cap increase during the previous week. BTC gained 8.8B on a weekly basis or 1.70%. The winner of the week was ETH, with a gain of 10.8B or 5.65% increase within a single week. BNB could also be mentioned as a significant gainer in nominal terms, as this coin managed to add 0.85B to its total value, which represents a 2.6% increase for this coin. There have been several coins with solid gains in relative terms, like Maker with a surge in value of 18.4%, LINK was up by 15.8%, Bitcoin Cash was up by 13.3%, OMG Network gained 12.7% w/w. There have been only a few losers during the week, with relatively smaller drop in price like NEO, with a drop in value of almost 2%, Stellar was down by 1% while Polkadot lost 1.75% on a weekly basis. There has been modest movements in circulating coins for several currencies, where Polkadot lost 3.8% of its coins in circulation while Filecoin added 0.4% new coins.
Crypto futures market
The crypto futures market was holding a positive sentiment during the previous week. Both BTC and ETH futures were traded at higher grounds from the end of the previous week. BTC short term futures were traded some 1.5% higher from the week before, and in line with developments on the spot market. Futures maturing in December this year ended the week at price $27.290 or 0.7% higher, while December 2024 managed to return to the levels above 30K as of the end of the previous week.
ETH short term futures were traded around 4.6% higher on a weekly basis, but still lower from the spot market. December this year ended the week at a price $1.691 or 4.9% higher from the end of the previous week. At the same time, longer term futures prices were increased by more than 4%, with December 2024 ending the week at price $1.791. Regardless of the developments on the spot market, investors are still holding precaution when ETH future prices are in question.
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