MARKETS week ahead: July 20 – 26

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Last week in the news

Resilient inflation and the jobs market in the US supported further investors sentiment, bringing equities to higher grounds. The new all time highest level was reached by the S&P 500, which is closing the week at 6.296. The US Dollar gained in value during the week, however, the price of gold remained relatively flat, closing it at $3.349. Strong macro data decreased expectations among market participants over the Fed's rate cut, bringing 10Y US yields down to 4,42%. The new Genius Act was passed in the U.S. House, supporting the price of BTC to hold at higher grounds, above the $118K.

The U.S. economic data in focus last week was led by June inflation figures. Headline inflation remained relatively stable, rising 0.3% for the month and 2.7% on a yearly basis, both matching market expectations. Core inflation came in at 0.2% for the month and 2.9% annually, slightly below forecasts by 0.1 percentage points, though still elevated. The Producer Price Index (PPI) was flat in June (0.0%), with core PPI also unchanged. On an annual basis, PPI rose by 2.3%, and core PPI by 2.6%. Meanwhile, retail sales in June outperformed, climbing 0.6%, well above the expected 0.1%. Another positive news came from the University of Michigan preliminary Consumer Sentiment Index for June, where five-year inflation expectations eased to 3,6% (down from 4% posted previously), while one-year expectations declined to 4,4% from the previous 5%. Resilient macro data decreased market expectations over the potential Feds rate cut in September to 50% from previous 70%, as per data shown in CME FedWatch Tool.

The Genius Act was passed by the U.S. House on July 17th, after its approval from the Senate in June. The bill represents an important milestone for the crypto market, as it sets a comprehensive federal standard for stablecoins, clearing the way for banks and fintechs to issue them under clear reserve and audit rules. Among others, it allows permitted institutions to issue U.S. Dollar-pegged stablecoins, backed 1:1 by liquid reserves such as cash or Treasuries. It also mandates strict rules for reserves, custody and consumer protection in terms of full reserves, monthly disclosures, segregation of assets and priority in bankruptcy, aimed to boost consumer confidence and financial stability.

Weekly news on trade tariffs include a report by the Financial Times indicating that the US President had intensified his trade demands on the European Union after weeks of negotiations. According to the report, Trump is now pushing for a minimum tariff of 15% to 20% on imports from the EU, escalating further trade tensions.

Effective July 23, the composition of the S&P 500 index will be adjusted. A tech company Block will be added to the index, replacing energy company Hess, which will be removed. Following the announcement, Block’s shares jumped 10% on Friday.

Denmark is the first country in the world which passed the legislation by which citizens of their country own the copyright to their own face, voice and body. With this move Denmark Government is trying to protect its citizens from AI deepfakes, and similar misuse of data, pictures and voices of its citizens, without an explicit consent.




CRYPTO MARKET

While the previous week was the one dedicated to BTC, this week belongs to altcoins, who drove total market capitalization to higher grounds. The adoption of the Genius Act by the U.S. House was the main trigger behind the strong demand for altcoins. The crypto market gained a total $181B in market cap, increasing it by 5% on a weekly basis. Out of $181B, BTC participated with “only” $11B. Daily trading volumes were also increased to the level of $333B, from around $300B traded a week before. Total crypto market capitalization from the beginning of this year currently stands at 17%, with a total funds inflow of $561B.

This week belongs to ETH and other altcoins, which were major weekly gainers. ETH managed to add $74B to its market cap, increasing it by an incredible 20,8%, reaching levels of $3,5K. XRP was also one of coins with a gain above 25%, adding total $41B to its market cap. This week, market favourite Solana added $9,4B to its capitalization, increasing its total value by 11%. BNB managed to collect new $6,3B, surging by 6,6%, while DOGE added $6,7B to its market cap, which was increased by 23%. Among significant gainers ADA should also be mentioned, with an weekly increase in its cap by $4,2B or 17%.

A relatively calmer week when coins in circulation are in question. The main weekly difference relates to ZCash which withdraws 3,8% of its coins from the market free float. At the same time, Solana was the one to increase its number of circulating coins by 0,4% this week. Algorand also had an increase of coins on the market by 0,3%.


Crypto futures market

BTC and ETH futures were moving in opposite directions during the previous week. While BTC futures had a modest drop in value for all maturities, ETH futures gained significantly. BTC futures were traded by around 0,8% lower from the week before. Futures maturing in December this year closed the week at $121.215, and those maturing a year later were last traded at $128.345.

At the same time, ETH futures marked a surge in value of around 18% for all maturities. The coin passed the $3,5K levels. December 2025 futures were closed at $3.678, while those maturing in December 2026 were last traded at $3.958.

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