When is the next alt season ? Trade BTC or Alts ?
Updated
Hello everyone.
To all of you on the crypto market since april 2019 and before, you've probably done your math.
Unless you're a very active trader, Altcoins have yielded less results than bitcoin in the recent months.
So we all know that but I thought I'd show you some graphs.
From the graphs, we'll see when we can expect an alt season. Of course there will still be good opportunities to swing trade Altcoins, but on longer term investment, Bitcoin reigns.
So how to read the chart ? It shows the 2015 to Now period.
The numbers compare altcoins/BTC. When going down, bitcoin outperforms altcoins. When going up, altcoins outperform bitcoin.
The red downward trend lines show the periods when BTC outperforms altcoins.
In 2015, we were always below the red descending trend line. BTC grew more or lost less compared to altcoins.
After the first spike in November 2015 (which I compare to the present bubble, article to be published), we had a short 3-months alt season (circle in white, +250% compared to BTC), 3 more months of BTC dominance, then 1 month of alt season (+200%), and 7 more months of BTC dominance.
Only then did we get the meaningful alt season : 5months (march to july 2017), +1700%.
Since then (july 2017 to now) bitcoin has been outperforming altcoins.
I'll let you look into the graph to make your own conclusions on the next cycle. I know my graph is subpar, sorry.
As for me, I can make no prediction but IF the cycle is similar-ish, we can expect a small alt season within a month (last time, it was 1 month after the first bubble). The BIG alt season then came 1 year after.
This was a first article analyzing the current cycle, compared to the previous one.
Will publish if there is interest for them (I'm not a LIKE hunter, so comments / messages are just as good to me if you want to show support, discuss counter arguments, etc).
PS : I'm not an analyst. Ideas published here are taken from other sources, then transformed, mixed with others and adapted to my taste.
To all of you on the crypto market since april 2019 and before, you've probably done your math.
Unless you're a very active trader, Altcoins have yielded less results than bitcoin in the recent months.
So we all know that but I thought I'd show you some graphs.
From the graphs, we'll see when we can expect an alt season. Of course there will still be good opportunities to swing trade Altcoins, but on longer term investment, Bitcoin reigns.
So how to read the chart ? It shows the 2015 to Now period.
The numbers compare altcoins/BTC. When going down, bitcoin outperforms altcoins. When going up, altcoins outperform bitcoin.
The red downward trend lines show the periods when BTC outperforms altcoins.
In 2015, we were always below the red descending trend line. BTC grew more or lost less compared to altcoins.
After the first spike in November 2015 (which I compare to the present bubble, article to be published), we had a short 3-months alt season (circle in white, +250% compared to BTC), 3 more months of BTC dominance, then 1 month of alt season (+200%), and 7 more months of BTC dominance.
Only then did we get the meaningful alt season : 5months (march to july 2017), +1700%.
Since then (july 2017 to now) bitcoin has been outperforming altcoins.
I'll let you look into the graph to make your own conclusions on the next cycle. I know my graph is subpar, sorry.
As for me, I can make no prediction but IF the cycle is similar-ish, we can expect a small alt season within a month (last time, it was 1 month after the first bubble). The BIG alt season then came 1 year after.
This was a first article analyzing the current cycle, compared to the previous one.
Will publish if there is interest for them (I'm not a LIKE hunter, so comments / messages are just as good to me if you want to show support, discuss counter arguments, etc).
PS : I'm not an analyst. Ideas published here are taken from other sources, then transformed, mixed with others and adapted to my taste.
Note
Related article from BabasNumbaOne, published just now : Oops, can't publish links. Make a search with his name or TOTAL2 tag.
Note
A quick update. See how we have two green candles now ? That's nice for alts and you've seen it, right ? Most are recovering or stabilizing.
Be careful though, we're still in the downtrend.
As for all the scary articles and comments about Alts, in my opinion : don't pay attention to them. Some alts are fundamental shitcoins, it's true. But many are gems, the future of IT. The future of IT will not just die now because BTC has been moving too fast during a few weeks.
Now is the perfect time for smart money to accumulate some bottomed out alts while we're panic selling them. In a few weeks, many will wonder why they dumped their alts when they were actually at the best possible buy price.
Not saying they can't get lower, just the usual warning not to trade on emotions.
As for people saying alts will never recover their ATH, I'd say don't put them all in the same bag. When the time is right and BTCs are flowing, alts will thrive - some like never before. Global crypto cap is growing with the years, while the number of new projets is slowing down. Simple math - that means more capitalization for the remaining projects. Yes, new all time highs.
Note
Big green candles. Trend reversal. Be careful with alts :)
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