Altseason is starting for real, fasten your seatbelts!
Updated
Last Altseason in January 2017 (vertical green line) started 231 days (33weeks) after the previous halvening (vertical blue line). If we report that period to the actual cycle, Altseason is about to start... Now.
We also saw recently a big rejection in BTC.D, forming a double top at 73%, with a bearish divergence with the RSI and a big engulfing candle in the daily. Nevertheless, there was a similar pattern end of novembre, but after a 10% decline, the trending continued from 61% up to 73%, with BTCUSD pumping up strongly at the same time.
Yet, this time seems different, first of all because of this rejection on the BTC Dominance chart at a very strong resistance (73% BTC.D), and also because we see in parallel the Altcoins starting to rally in BTC value while BTC continues pumping up...
Everything could still be ruined if BTC pull back down hardly. But if we check the BTCUSD chart, we can see that the very beginning of the last Altseason coincided with a 33% drop in BTCUSD value (end of February 2017). It is like the drop in BTCUSD triggered the last Altseason, like if traders and investors reallocated their BTC gains in altcoins...
And that's exactly what we are seeing for the last few days... After the rally of the majors, we are now seeing a rally of the medium caps. Small caps altcoins are likely to start pumping now, and trigger therefore a new Altseason. Everything depends if we can go through the ATH in total marketcap (excludind BTC), we are very close to this resistance now.
Fasten your seatbelt, I expect a 50X increase in MarketCap (excl. BTC) until end of 2021, if we follow a classic 4 years cycle pegged to the BTC halvening. In case of a lengthened cycle, I'd expect even more upside, maybe up to 200-300X from here, until end of 2022 then. Follow the blue dotted diagonal for the target.
For the moment, my bet goes for a 4 year cycle and a 50x move up from here, it seems more reasonable. But who said the crypto market was reasonable?
We also saw recently a big rejection in BTC.D, forming a double top at 73%, with a bearish divergence with the RSI and a big engulfing candle in the daily. Nevertheless, there was a similar pattern end of novembre, but after a 10% decline, the trending continued from 61% up to 73%, with BTCUSD pumping up strongly at the same time.
Yet, this time seems different, first of all because of this rejection on the BTC Dominance chart at a very strong resistance (73% BTC.D), and also because we see in parallel the Altcoins starting to rally in BTC value while BTC continues pumping up...
Everything could still be ruined if BTC pull back down hardly. But if we check the BTCUSD chart, we can see that the very beginning of the last Altseason coincided with a 33% drop in BTCUSD value (end of February 2017). It is like the drop in BTCUSD triggered the last Altseason, like if traders and investors reallocated their BTC gains in altcoins...
And that's exactly what we are seeing for the last few days... After the rally of the majors, we are now seeing a rally of the medium caps. Small caps altcoins are likely to start pumping now, and trigger therefore a new Altseason. Everything depends if we can go through the ATH in total marketcap (excludind BTC), we are very close to this resistance now.
Fasten your seatbelt, I expect a 50X increase in MarketCap (excl. BTC) until end of 2021, if we follow a classic 4 years cycle pegged to the BTC halvening. In case of a lengthened cycle, I'd expect even more upside, maybe up to 200-300X from here, until end of 2022 then. Follow the blue dotted diagonal for the target.
For the moment, my bet goes for a 4 year cycle and a 50x move up from here, it seems more reasonable. But who said the crypto market was reasonable?
Note
Something I didn't show on the chart... From the beginning of the altseason in February 2017 to the peak 1st of January 2018, there has been a 600x increase in market cap (12.000x from the bottom, insanity). Hence a 50X increase for this market cap seems very reasonable. And the small caps will by definition pump harder than the others (with a lot of disparity between them of course) since the influx of capital will be proportionally much more important than with medium cap. But they will also pump last. Watch out though, BTC.D is climbing again, if it breaks the 73% resistance, there is a strong possibility for BTC.D to rally up to 79%... Would be painful for the alts then.
There is also a possibility that BTC correct more than 35%, since it went parabolic. A 50% decrease is more likely, and if there is a steep decline, then alts will probably suffer from it, certainly in USD value, even if they could still raise in BTC value.
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