TRX Looks Like It Could Use A Breather
Updated
My TRX analysis has probably been my most spot on analysis so far, so I'm proud of this one. I originally suggested that TRX was bullish after rallying back above its broken support, (in blue) when it was still hovering around 350. Then it broke out of its triangle, as I said was pretty likely given price action. I also suggested that the breakout at 430 would have been a safe long entry. Since then, if one had followed this idea and exited when the weekly RSI reached overbought (above 800), you'd have walked away with 90-100% profits. If you bought even earlier (in the high 200's or low 300's) you'd be sitting at up to 300%. I entered at 376 and then 318. I exited a little early (close to 600), but that's okay. I'm still learning, which is why I don't day trade much. We even overshot my target (green X) but then quickly got rejected. 
I called this one very early because the signals were pretty clear to me.
You can see my two previous TRXBTC charts here:
However, as I said towards the end of my last TRXBTC analysis, weekly RSI had reached overbought with heavy volume, which signified we were near a top. I noticed on Reddit a lot of people were trying to time the dip and going "all in" above 700 sats. These people are gamblers, to say the least. I said we'd probably topped out when we were over 800 sats, and since then we have had a pretty major pullback. I think we can now expect a bigger correction. Potential targets would be my red X's. If 660 breaks down, we could fall to the newfound support in the 554 zone (broken resistance) or at 430 (the big breakout point). TRX remains long term bullish, so I wouldn't go full-on bearish until any lower supports are broken. This is simply an idea to show where we could head if we have indeed topped out for now. If we consolidate above 660 and move up, we could break 860 and test 1000-1500.
Of course, we could consolidate here and head higher to retest 860, especially if Bitcoin bounces. If I were to short here, I'd probably set a stop loss. My red targets are zones where I might personally look for re-entry, as I scaled out of TRX and into NEO, which I think is showing a similar bullish accumulation pattern to TRX before its breakout. That's my personal trade though, and it might not play out as I hope it will.
This is not financial advice, and I'm not a professional financial advisor. Just because I made an excellent call once doesn't mean I will continue to do so, and it doesn't mean that my target prices HAVE to be reached. You choose what to do with your own money.
-Victor Cobra
I called this one very early because the signals were pretty clear to me.
You can see my two previous TRXBTC charts here:
However, as I said towards the end of my last TRXBTC analysis, weekly RSI had reached overbought with heavy volume, which signified we were near a top. I noticed on Reddit a lot of people were trying to time the dip and going "all in" above 700 sats. These people are gamblers, to say the least. I said we'd probably topped out when we were over 800 sats, and since then we have had a pretty major pullback. I think we can now expect a bigger correction. Potential targets would be my red X's. If 660 breaks down, we could fall to the newfound support in the 554 zone (broken resistance) or at 430 (the big breakout point). TRX remains long term bullish, so I wouldn't go full-on bearish until any lower supports are broken. This is simply an idea to show where we could head if we have indeed topped out for now. If we consolidate above 660 and move up, we could break 860 and test 1000-1500.
Of course, we could consolidate here and head higher to retest 860, especially if Bitcoin bounces. If I were to short here, I'd probably set a stop loss. My red targets are zones where I might personally look for re-entry, as I scaled out of TRX and into NEO, which I think is showing a similar bullish accumulation pattern to TRX before its breakout. That's my personal trade though, and it might not play out as I hope it will.
This is not financial advice, and I'm not a professional financial advisor. Just because I made an excellent call once doesn't mean I will continue to do so, and it doesn't mean that my target prices HAVE to be reached. You choose what to do with your own money.
-Victor Cobra
Note
We could also end up targeting the 610 area for a short term bounce (sort of like the last cycle) and end up with a double-top. Overall though, I expect this to make a bigger pullback.Note
So far, we've pulled back further as expected. Given the support here between 630-650, we might end up making another test of the supply zone above in the 700-800 area before dropping further. If one were shorting, it would probably be best to wait for a further breakdown of the 628 support area (in green). Note
We've made it to the 610 area and bounced a bit. The target for this bounce could be in the low 700's. This also depends on Bitcoin's stability. Obviously if we break 610, we'd probably head down to 554. Note
We got a bit below my target zone for a potential swing trade (610). I think a lot of people knew there were stop losses in that area, so they took us a bit lower before pumping it. This has happened with a bunch of alts the past couple of days. This is why I decided to not set stop losses, even though I was considering it. Too close to market bottom to do that. In any case, TRX has since rallied back up to the 700 area and got rejected, as I expected. From here, we can either consolidate and test 800 or move on to my short target of 554. Note
So it looks like we didn't get down to my target. The bounce has been petty sustained for now, and it could take us back up to the resistance to test it. If the market wants to move up, perhaps we can even surpass the recent high.Note
Actually seems we're just continuously finding resistance in this 700 area. Could be due for a test of support again.Note
The best chance for TRX to move up is if this ascending triangle plays out. If it breaks down, we will likely begin the larger correction. Stepping out from the market for a bit and will update my charts at a later date when things become clearer and Bitcoin decides a trend. Note
Looks like we may be due for another wave up. The market is pretty tricky right now. Lots of fake moves in both directions.Note
As you can see, we're approaching resistance again (the red line). If that breaks, we should have a pretty large impulse up. I would wait for a stronger rejection to enter a short.Note
Even though this was originally a short setup, as you can see, things have changed. As I did suggest in my last update, we had another wave up, but we haven’t been able to quite crack the previous rejection zone yet. We may have fuel to get up to 1000, but traders who entered in the 280-370 area are likely taking profit now. This is what I would call a “complacent” second top. We’re holding above 800, but as I understand, a lot of people were looking to get out on the 28th after the BTT airdrop, in classic sell the news fashion. Long term, TRX looks good, but it doesn’t look like a good buy to me here right now.Note
Another thing I’d like to mention is that many other top alts have been bleeding as TRX has gone on its run. Since the crypto market is fairly illiquid, it’s pretty obvious to tell where the money is going. Most of the big players have clearly been using TRX for profit. You can see evidence of this when our first rejection above 800 coincided with Bitcoin's drop from 4K. Based on this, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a lot of money flowing back into XLM, XRP, ETH, Etc. once the TRX correction occurs.Note
Looks like some TRX money has already flowed back into XRP, as projected.Note
If the 740-760ish area breaks (red line on my chart), TRX will likely start its bigger correction and head towards my targets. This would coincide with its hype cycle, which seems like it needs a break after all the BTT airdrop.Note
As you can see, the bigger correction has begun, and we are likely to head down to the lower supports to consolidate for a while. Congrats to anyone who was able to profit from this cycle.Note
We’ve made it back down to the 610 prior support area for the first sell off during the double top. I’d be careful selling here. We could see a bounce. However, it’s possible we head further down to make contact with the dark blue trend line, currently between 570 and 580. If that line fails to hold, we may end up reaching for my second short target at the lower blue trend line (somewhere in the 400s).Note
We've successfully bounced from my first major target and are back above the diagonal support. This is a strong move by TRX, and could indicate some upside from here. If this uptrend is broken, we may have to test lower supports, but we got some good news (USDT) today. 
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