TRX 4 Year Triangle Ending, Going to $10+ Next Year
Updated
TRX appears to be ending a triangle which began at the beginning of it's price history with the lowest point being wave-A of the triangle, and wave-E reaching its conclusion now based on the time target of E=(C+D)/2, and a price target of of E=C(0.382). The internal structure of wave-E has formed into a perfect triangle with wave-e of E now reaching its time target based on the monthly and weekly charts.
A triangle seems to fit the best here because wave-D=(B+C)/2 (time), and wave-E=C+D (time). Wave-B was retraced more than 61% by wave-C, wave-E relates to wave-C by 38.2% (price), and wave-D relates to wave-B by 61.8% (price). The structure of every wave is corrective. The channeling of both the larger triangle and the smaller triangle is ideal, with wave-E giving false breakdowns on both triangles. All other counts I've seen seem to have significant improbabilities, with this count seeming to have the best time, price, structure, channeling, and complexity relationships of all counts I have considered so far.
The implications of this are that we should see a move that is bigger and faster than wave-B, which would take TRX to well over $10 next year.
The fundamental trigger for such a large move would probably be related to TRX burns accelerating at the same time that Chinese money begins to enter the market through Hong Kong legalizing crypto trading and ETFs and pushing to become a global crypto-financial hub. TRX is in the best market position to benefit from new Chinese money entering the market next year, and the extremely rapid rate of TRX burns increasing with more USDD demand and network activity creates an expected future supply that is a tiny fraction of what it is today.
A triangle seems to fit the best here because wave-D=(B+C)/2 (time), and wave-E=C+D (time). Wave-B was retraced more than 61% by wave-C, wave-E relates to wave-C by 38.2% (price), and wave-D relates to wave-B by 61.8% (price). The structure of every wave is corrective. The channeling of both the larger triangle and the smaller triangle is ideal, with wave-E giving false breakdowns on both triangles. All other counts I've seen seem to have significant improbabilities, with this count seeming to have the best time, price, structure, channeling, and complexity relationships of all counts I have considered so far.
The implications of this are that we should see a move that is bigger and faster than wave-B, which would take TRX to well over $10 next year.
The fundamental trigger for such a large move would probably be related to TRX burns accelerating at the same time that Chinese money begins to enter the market through Hong Kong legalizing crypto trading and ETFs and pushing to become a global crypto-financial hub. TRX is in the best market position to benefit from new Chinese money entering the market next year, and the extremely rapid rate of TRX burns increasing with more USDD demand and network activity creates an expected future supply that is a tiny fraction of what it is today.
Note
While TRX did move from 5.4 cents to 6.6 cents, that is a far cry from my original 10 target. What we should have seen to confirm the 10 target was a very powerful breakout from this triangle. What we had was a very lackluster move up which hasn't even made it above the lower orange support line which goes from the 2017 low to the 2020 low. Actually we are still stuck under this support line which means it has become resistance.These are just some of the technical reasons for why I am now bearish TRX. From a wave theory perspective, this lackluster move is likely a wave-x meaning we are going to get another triangle or diametric following this x-wave, and that should take TRX down to at least 3.3 cents and extend into next year.
So while this was a minimally profitable forecast, it unfortunately was not as profitable as hoped. In the long-term TRX is still likely to go to 10, but it could a year or longer before we begin the climb towards those prices.
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