Best Case Scenario: TRX is going to $250
Updated
In the realistic possibility that a vast majority of TRX is burnt in the next year, we could see a hyper deflationary spiral causing TRX to increase 35x-100x in market cap, and 3000x in price.
Based on the average burn rate of 284 million TRX per day since USDD launched, it's possible that 99% of the circulating supply of TRX is removed from circulation over the next year or so. This means there could be only 1 billion TRX in circulation in the near future, and a price of $250 per TRX is realistic in that scenario because it would be a market cap of only $250 billion, still significantly smaller than what Bitcoin is today and roughly equal to Ethereum's current market cap. It should also be noted that BTC and ETH are expected to increase over this period of time as well to several trillion market cap each.
There are 32 billion TRX staked and the TRON DAO holds about 28 billion TRX , that leaves less than 45 billion TRX currently "circulating," though at the right price many people will begin unstaking and selling. These sales will likely end up getting burnt by USDD redemptions or network fees, ultimately moving the supply that is available for sale closer to 0.
Even if the available supply remains around 10 billion TRX (minus TRON DAO coins which will likely be burnt or remain off the market during this time) a $250 price and $2.5 trillion market cap is still possible and would be much smaller than BTC would be at that point, assuming Bitcoin likely goes to at least 200k-
1M
If the giga bull scenario doesn't happen a move to $10 is still very likely as the supply should remain hyper deflationary to keep up with the demand for USDD for the foreseeable future. A move to $10 at 10 billion supply would be only $100 billion market cap which is less than half of what ETH is today, and again ETH could also be expected to rise to $10-20k over the same period making it's market cap well into the trillions.
Eventually demand for USDD will begin to reverse when collateralization becomes riskier and interest rates are cut, leading to people redeeming USDD for TRX , and likely causing a massive correction in TRX . possibly larger than the -97% correction we saw after the 2018 peak, and in a worst case scenario TRX could end up in a death spiral like LUNA if the USDD peg is broken and redemptions are not paused soon enough.
I think that the TRON DAO Reserve will learn from LUNA's mistakes, and that USDD will ultimately have much better collateralization, and in the risk of a death spiral redemptions for TRX will be paused before the supply of TRX becomes too large like what happened with LUNA. The death spiral may actually be avoided by simply cutting the APR when collateralization becomes too low, which LUNA and UST never did and that led to UST being undercollateralized. By cutting the APR they also cut the demand which can lead to a more orderly exit from USDD, rather than everyone rushing for the exit at the same time like with UST .
As people exit USDD in a more orderly fashion the collateralization levels become greater and the risk of a death spiral decreases to near 0. The catch is if USDD is collateralized by risky assets like BTC or TRX , then there is systemic risk if those assets suddenly crash and now the reserve dollar value has rapidly declined to less than the total issuance of USDD. For now there are enough stablecoins to back USDD at greater than 1:1 ratio so there is virtually no risk of a death spiral, but even an orderly exit from USDD will cause downward pressure on TRX prices.
Even without a death spiral a massive correction is likely after a move to triple digits, especially when the TRON DAO Reserve is forced to eventually cut USDD rates, which will put downward pressure on TRX as capital begins to leave USDD and the supply of TRX may actually begin to increase. The key is for the TDR to avoid a hyperinflationary spiral by taking on too much debt, much like when a central bank takes on too much debt and their currency begins to hyperinflate to pay for this debt.
While the exact price may not be clear at this point, what is clear is that TRX's supply has entered into a hyper deflationary spiral and if it keeps up at the rate it is going a vast majority of TRX will be burnt in a year, and the price of TRX is going to have to go much higher to meet the demand for USDD issuance and 30% APR that is offered by USDD staking.
Even if the market cap remains the same the price could still increase by 10-100x over the next year or two because the supply of TRX is rapidly declining and that trend is likely to continue as long as USDD APR remains high and the TRON DAO Reserve remains overcollateralized.
I would watch for resistance around psychological levels because that is likely where the most sell liquidity will be found to meet the demand of USDD redemptions, around $1 (61.8 extension), $10 (1.0 extension), $100, and finally $250 (161.8 extension of wave-E )
Based on the average burn rate of 284 million TRX per day since USDD launched, it's possible that 99% of the circulating supply of TRX is removed from circulation over the next year or so. This means there could be only 1 billion TRX in circulation in the near future, and a price of $250 per TRX is realistic in that scenario because it would be a market cap of only $250 billion, still significantly smaller than what Bitcoin is today and roughly equal to Ethereum's current market cap. It should also be noted that BTC and ETH are expected to increase over this period of time as well to several trillion market cap each.
There are 32 billion TRX staked and the TRON DAO holds about 28 billion TRX , that leaves less than 45 billion TRX currently "circulating," though at the right price many people will begin unstaking and selling. These sales will likely end up getting burnt by USDD redemptions or network fees, ultimately moving the supply that is available for sale closer to 0.
Even if the available supply remains around 10 billion TRX (minus TRON DAO coins which will likely be burnt or remain off the market during this time) a $250 price and $2.5 trillion market cap is still possible and would be much smaller than BTC would be at that point, assuming Bitcoin likely goes to at least 200k-
1MIf the giga bull scenario doesn't happen a move to $10 is still very likely as the supply should remain hyper deflationary to keep up with the demand for USDD for the foreseeable future. A move to $10 at 10 billion supply would be only $100 billion market cap which is less than half of what ETH is today, and again ETH could also be expected to rise to $10-20k over the same period making it's market cap well into the trillions.
Eventually demand for USDD will begin to reverse when collateralization becomes riskier and interest rates are cut, leading to people redeeming USDD for TRX , and likely causing a massive correction in TRX . possibly larger than the -97% correction we saw after the 2018 peak, and in a worst case scenario TRX could end up in a death spiral like LUNA if the USDD peg is broken and redemptions are not paused soon enough.
I think that the TRON DAO Reserve will learn from LUNA's mistakes, and that USDD will ultimately have much better collateralization, and in the risk of a death spiral redemptions for TRX will be paused before the supply of TRX becomes too large like what happened with LUNA. The death spiral may actually be avoided by simply cutting the APR when collateralization becomes too low, which LUNA and UST never did and that led to UST being undercollateralized. By cutting the APR they also cut the demand which can lead to a more orderly exit from USDD, rather than everyone rushing for the exit at the same time like with UST .
As people exit USDD in a more orderly fashion the collateralization levels become greater and the risk of a death spiral decreases to near 0. The catch is if USDD is collateralized by risky assets like BTC or TRX , then there is systemic risk if those assets suddenly crash and now the reserve dollar value has rapidly declined to less than the total issuance of USDD. For now there are enough stablecoins to back USDD at greater than 1:1 ratio so there is virtually no risk of a death spiral, but even an orderly exit from USDD will cause downward pressure on TRX prices.
Even without a death spiral a massive correction is likely after a move to triple digits, especially when the TRON DAO Reserve is forced to eventually cut USDD rates, which will put downward pressure on TRX as capital begins to leave USDD and the supply of TRX may actually begin to increase. The key is for the TDR to avoid a hyperinflationary spiral by taking on too much debt, much like when a central bank takes on too much debt and their currency begins to hyperinflate to pay for this debt.
While the exact price may not be clear at this point, what is clear is that TRX's supply has entered into a hyper deflationary spiral and if it keeps up at the rate it is going a vast majority of TRX will be burnt in a year, and the price of TRX is going to have to go much higher to meet the demand for USDD issuance and 30% APR that is offered by USDD staking.
Even if the market cap remains the same the price could still increase by 10-100x over the next year or two because the supply of TRX is rapidly declining and that trend is likely to continue as long as USDD APR remains high and the TRON DAO Reserve remains overcollateralized.
I would watch for resistance around psychological levels because that is likely where the most sell liquidity will be found to meet the demand of USDD redemptions, around $1 (61.8 extension), $10 (1.0 extension), $100, and finally $250 (161.8 extension of wave-E )
Trade closed manually
TRX will likely head lower first before a big move like this happens. Possibly to around 2 cents. This will likely be because of global deflationary forces causes an exit from all risk assets.This will be great for TRX in the long-term because USDD redemptions will burn up TRX at an even faster rate after the USDD peg is restored, because TRX will be much cheaper. The lower the price of TRX is when USDD is created, the better, because more TRX will have to get burned to create the same dollar amount.
I suspect that TRX will be one of the fastest assets to recover from this recession because of its hyperdeflationary supply.
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