TSLA - Confirmation of Recovery Still Pending
Updated
As the chart suggest and following trend, we have been playing TSLA to the downside while heavily monitoring whether or not we will actually even go to the $64 (which would average it out with to more similar pricing for stocks in a Car Company, even more so EVs).
Our last PUTs rode in over the Christmas Weekend in which we closed and switch our positioning to a Call Option Strategy around the $109-$111 Range to ride a relief bounce from the downward pressure and rode those into this morning right before TSLA started spiking around $122.
After further analysis the trend, we got out of CALLs and started picking up PUTs to ride this at least back to $109 going into the New Year. Reason being, although TSLA had a great 13% (8%-9% intraday) but it needed to at least find and hold support above $122.27 for us. And although there is still time in the trading session, we believe TSLA will retrace back down to at least $116-$117 and we believe that will way on confidence of a very STRONG push any higher.
By all means, not necessarily bearish or even bullish, and could also be wrong here by all means as we are looking for the bottom just as much as everyone else. Just paying the short-term moving as we retest $108's and that could possibly be the moment this either pushes down even harder or we may have potentially found support.
Our last PUTs rode in over the Christmas Weekend in which we closed and switch our positioning to a Call Option Strategy around the $109-$111 Range to ride a relief bounce from the downward pressure and rode those into this morning right before TSLA started spiking around $122.
After further analysis the trend, we got out of CALLs and started picking up PUTs to ride this at least back to $109 going into the New Year. Reason being, although TSLA had a great 13% (8%-9% intraday) but it needed to at least find and hold support above $122.27 for us. And although there is still time in the trading session, we believe TSLA will retrace back down to at least $116-$117 and we believe that will way on confidence of a very STRONG push any higher.
By all means, not necessarily bearish or even bullish, and could also be wrong here by all means as we are looking for the bottom just as much as everyone else. Just paying the short-term moving as we retest $108's and that could possibly be the moment this either pushes down even harder or we may have potentially found support.
Trade active
TSLA $92 PUTs with a short expiration to take advantage of the higher Delta point and not planning to hold beyond Friday Market Close (12/30/2022).Note
This is beginning to look like a potential panic selling of Shorts. If you're going to short, ensure you have confidence in why and hold strong in your determinations unless you see the correct deviations.Note
If we do not hold support at $118.41, then I believe we could indeed touch the $108's again (at least).Note
Note
Please note, that my thesis highlights that there may be potential momentum loss, signs of it that we saw yesterday and are starting to be confirmed today.Now.. this is TSLA, an "automotive" stock that's been treated like an EV stock, trading a 60x multiple where other autos trade at 6x.
And when looking at it from a business growth standpoint (birth, growth, maturity, and retirement of a company per se) TSLA hit all of this in a very early stage of a large growth period as a business (hitting a small timeframe (10-15 years) maturity within their long term business life cycle if that makes sense.
From there you can layer on all the Fundamentals, and even more, internal/external factors but ultimately at the end of this, you have to follow the investor's emotional trading. And that is what I look for in my TA and trying to identify the investor sentiment from the previous factors.
I have a liquidity scanner in TOS that looks for these momentum shifts and out of all the major stocks yesterday, TSLA actually didn't fall on that list for us. So, we expected what we're seeing even now.
Broke out above $122.27 even after lowering to $119, retested the $123.84 level (longer support level), hit $124.47, and rejected back to the downside
The following shows a few days but will add another screenshot or two
(Closer view of the momentum lost we're referring to. Also shows, Volume Selling taking over while the stock pivoted on the 1-hr from becoming oversold and beginning heading to the downside.
All that being said.. this TSLA. We could hit $134 by the end of the day for all I know. All it takes is ELON tweeting whatever or hoping on an interview with someone to pump this right back up. But even ELON told his employees to "quit worrying about the stock price and focusing on getting these deliveries in".
Note
Also found this just nowNote
Trade closed: target reached
Indicators came in clutch and confirmed what I was expecting from last week. Now to watch the 108s to see if they hold and we retest 122s again or if we're going to the next important level lower where I would have more interest in a longer-term hold.
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